Wisconsin Governor 2026 — Democratic Primary

Wisconsin holds its partisan primary on August 11, 2026, and the Democratic gubernatorial field has resolved into a runaway: Francesca Hong is priced near 95% to be the nominee across every exchange that lists the race, with David Crowley a distant second. This workspace tracks the primary cross-exchange, spotlights the frontrunner, and carries the Republican field and the November general as the path beyond primary night.

Anchor: Kalshi—Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? (deepest book on the race). Copy this workspace to your own account to track it through the general.

The Democratic nominee book on all three exchanges that price it—Kalshi runs the deepest at ~$290K/24h, with Polymarket and Manifold mirroring. Pies show the full field, no count cap, so the long tail stays visible.

Francesca Hong is the single most-weighted outcome on the board—priced near 95% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. These isolate her direct market on each exchange so you can read the price and the cross-exchange spread on the outcome the book has effectively converged on.

The Republican primary field and the November general. The GOP book is thin; the general-election market prices which party holds the governorship after November 3.

• A settled-looking primary. At ~95%, the book treats Hong as the nominee; the live question is margin and turnout, not who wins. Watch the margin-of-victory Categorical and any late shift in the second tier.
• Cross-exchange spread. Kalshi carries the volume; when Polymarket or Manifold lag a move on Hong, the gap is the signal.
• Primary to general. A near-locked nominee shifts attention to November—track the general-election book for how the seat is priced once the field is set.
• Primary date. Wisconsin votes August 11; the countdown above marks it.