Ohio Governor 2026

Mike DeWine is term-limited, and the fight to replace him has become the most competitively-priced gubernatorial market of the 2026 cycle. The matchup is set: Republican Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director. What makes this one worth watching is the cross-exchange disagreement—Kalshi has the race at a near coin flip, while Polymarket prices Republicans several points clear. This workspace pulls the winner markets from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold side by side so you can read that spread directly, spotlights the Republican and Democratic contracts, and tracks the trajectory into the November 3 election.

Kalshi runs candidate-level contracts (Ramaswamy, Acton); Polymarket and Manifold price the race by party. Watch the gap between Kalshi's near-even line and Polymarket's Republican lean.

Both books lean Republican, but by different margins. These are the direct Republican-hold contracts on each exchange—the cleanest read on the one outcome the market is converging on.

Kalshi's daily history shows how the race has moved into the fall; Manifold's community market isolates the Vivek Ramaswamy question specifically.

• Election day is November 3, 2026; Kalshi settlement follows certification on January 14, 2027.
• The cross-exchange spread is the story—if Kalshi and Polymarket converge, one book is repricing the race.
• Ramaswamy's national profile brings outside money and attention; Acton's health-department tenure anchors the Democratic pitch.
• Ohio has trended Republican in recent statewide cycles, which is likely why Polymarket sits higher than Kalshi's coin flip.