California Governor 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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Gavin Newsom is termed out in January 2027, and the race to replace him is the highest-volume off-presidential-year governor's race on prediction markets. Polymarket carries the liquid general-election book; Kalshi lists a parallel Categorical plus separate primary, primary-first-place, and potential-matchup events. The June 2 top-two primary is the first hard gate—California's jungle-primary structure means any two candidates (regardless of party) can advance to November.

Primary: Tuesday, June 2, 2026.
General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Settlement sources: California Secretary of State—2026 election results · AP race call.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking as the field clarifies.

Categorical pies on the November 3 winner across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold, plus the Polymarket history chart into election day. Pie slices show every candidate in the book—no top-N cap—so the long tail is visible.

California's jungle primary sends the top two finishers—regardless of party—to November. Kalshi lists a Multiple "advancers" event plus a separate Categorical on the first-place finisher; Polymarket has a parallel Multiple on who advances. Kalshi's matchup event prices the likeliest head-to-head pairing.

  • Pre-primary shifts (now through June 2). With 20+ declared candidates, odds move on endorsements, polling, and campaign-finance filings. Watch for a lead shuffle in the Categorical pies as the field winnows.
  • June 2 primary result. Top-two advancement means a Dem-vs-Dem November is plausible in a blue state with a deep bench; a Dem-vs-Rep outcome depends on Republican consolidation.
  • Kalshi matchup event. KXCAGOVMATCHUP-26JUN prices the most-likely head-to-head pairing—useful when the primary field is unsettled but the two likely survivors are already identifiable.
  • Cross-exchange spread. Polymarket is the deeper book and moves first on endorsements; Kalshi is a cleaner signal on U.S.-retail consensus. Watch where they diverge.
  • Late-cycle cross-currents. A national redistricting referendum, Newsom's 2028 positioning, and down-ballot races all feed into this market's volatility.