Trump Administration Turnover 2026

$746,816 is parked on two contracts marked at exactly 50.0%, and neither has traded. In Kalshi's Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? book, Karoline Leavitt holds $390,483 and Todd Blanche $356,333—both quoted at the untraded midpoint, together 36% of the book's $2,048,930 of open interest. Leavitt's contract has already resolved; the mark has not moved.

The rest of the book prices normally and trades on one name. Pete Hegseth at 32% took $14,170 of the book's $17,564 day—81% of all flow—on $360,002 held. Howard Lutnick is at 37%, Amy Gleason 42.5%, Susie Wiles 33%, RFK Jr. 24.5%. Kash Patel at 22.5% carries $390,268, the second-deepest position in the event, on $259 of flow.

The Kash Patel timing book is worse. It holds $548,163 and turned $496. Before Jul 1, 2026 and Before Aug 1, 2026—both dates two months past—are marked at exactly 50.0% and hold $185,139 and $279,624. That is 85% of the book sitting on rungs whose answer has been known since summer.

The Cabinet timing ladder is frozen at the front and inverted at the back. Before Jul 2026 and Before Aug 2026 both read 50.0%. Then Before Sep prices 3.5%, Before Oct 33.5%, Before Nov 70.5% and Before Dec 62%—a later date cheaper than an earlier one.

Who leaves in 2026, on both exchanges.

Kalshi holds $2,048,930 across 33 names and turned $17,564—a 117-to-1 ratio. Nine names have never traded, and two of the untraded ones, Leavitt and Blanche, hold $746,816 between them at exactly 50.0%.

Polymarket's version turns its flow through Pete Hegseth too, at 18.5% on $2,892, against Kalshi's 32%. The two exchanges are 13.5 points apart on the single most-traded name in the category—the widest cross-exchange spread on this page.

Pete Hegseth is the whole book. He prices 32% on Kalshi, holds $360,002, and took $14,170—81% of the event's entire day. Polymarket prices the same name at 18.5%.

Beside him, RFK Jr. in the Cabinet-exit book at 16.5% on $10,501 held. The Cabinet book's own flow leader is Hegseth again at 16%, with $1,245.

The two timing ladders, and both are broken in the same way.

Cabinet exit timing has Before Jul 2026 and Before Aug 2026 at exactly 50.0%—dates long past—holding $518 and $583. Past them the chain inverts: Before Sep 3.5%, Before Oct 33.5%, Before Nov 70.5%, Before Dec 62%, Before Jan 2027 65%. November above December is impossible on a cumulative ladder.

The Kash Patel ladder holds $548,163 on $496 of flow. Its two past-dated rungs, Before Jul 1 and Before Aug 1, sit at 50.0% holding $464,763 between them—85% of the book. The live rungs read Before Oct 3.5%, Before Nov 4.5%, Before Dec 15.5%.

The Cabinet book holds $101,416 across 21 names and turns $2,188, with only two names untraded—the healthiest book on this page. RFK Jr. leads at 16.5%, Hegseth 16%, Markwayne Mullin 15.5%, Chris Wright 13%, Brooke Rollins 10.5%. It is genuinely flat: no name above 17%, and the top five separated by six points.

Beside it, the tail contract—Trump resigning before his term ends.

• $746,816 sits on two rungs marked at exactly 50.0%, and one of them has already resolved. Karoline Leavitt ($390,483) and Todd Blanche ($356,333) are both quoted at the untraded midpoint in a book holding $2,048,930. Leavitt's outcome is settled and the mark has not moved.
• The Kash Patel book is 85% frozen. $464,763 of its $548,163 sits on Before Jul 1 and Before Aug 1, both at 50.0%, both two months past. The book turned $496 today.
• The exchanges are 13.5 points apart on Hegseth. Kalshi 32%, Polymarket 18.5%, on the most-traded name in the category. That is a real cross-exchange spread, not a stale quote—both legs traded today.
• Hegseth took 81% of the Kalshi book's flow. $14,170 of $17,564, on one of 33 names.
• The Cabinet timing ladder inverts at November. Before Nov 70.5% above Before Dec 62%. A cumulative ladder cannot do that.
• Kash Patel holds $390,268 at 22.5% in the main book and traded $259. Second-deepest position in the event, effectively motionless.