Trump Administration Turnover 2026

Personnel churn is one of the few political stories prediction markets price better than polls do, because there is no polling on it—only insider expectation and rumor flow. The anchor turns over roughly $236k a day, and $212k of that sits on one name.

Karoline Leavitt. The press secretary's departure leg prices at 99.6% on Kalshi and has already resolved Yes on Polymarket—along with Pam Bondi, Dan Bongino and Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Todd Blanche and Tulsi Gabbard have settled Yes too. That is six names off the board, and the market is now working through what is left rather than pricing a single pending question.

A correction worth making: this is not Kalshi-native. Polymarket runs the same book at about $33k a day, and it settles faster—Leavitt is already resolved there while Kalshi's leg still trades at 99.6¢. When a departure lands, the venue spread is a settlement-speed artifact, not disagreement.

Related: AG Confirmation 2026 is the settled record of the Blanche nomination; Fed Chair Tracker covers the one seat this workspace deliberately leaves out.

Kalshi's anchor Multiple prices each named official separately, so it reads as a departure-risk surface rather than a single forecast. Beside it, Polymarket's version of the same question. Strip out the resolved names and Kalshi's field is remarkably flat: Amy Gleason at 46.5%, Susie Wiles at 36.5%, then a dense cluster—Kash Patel 32.5%, Brooke Rollins 32%, Pete Hegseth 31.5%, Linda McMahon 30.5%, Howard Lutnick 28.5%, Bill Pulte 26.5%, Chris Wright 26% all inside seven points.

Polymarket ranks the survivors differently: David Sacks at 38.8% leads there and does not appear near the top of Kalshi's book at all, with Kennedy at 30.5% and Lutnick at 30%. Two books, same question, materially different orderings underneath the resolved names.

Leavitt's leg at 99.6% against Kennedy's Cabinet line at 16.5%. Leavitt is a settled fact still trading a fraction under par; Kennedy is genuine political risk that has not moved in weeks. Same contract shape, opposite information content, and no way to tell them apart from the price alone—which is exactly why the 24-hour volume figure matters more than the price on a book like this. Ninety percent of today's turnover is on a question that is already answered.

When rather than who. Kalshi's Cabinet-departure Multiple prices a first departure before December 2026 at 62.5%, before October at 47%, and before September at only 13%—the July and August rungs have both resolved No, so the near end of the ladder is compressing into the autumn. The Kash Patel ladder, the most-traded individual timing book, runs from 4.5% before September to 21.5% before December. Every rung that expires without a departure pushes probability backwards into the ones behind it, so treat rising far-dated rungs as arithmetic unless the near ones move too.

With Leavitt resolved, the highest genuinely live line among Cabinet officers is a three-way tie: Kennedy at 16.5%, Chris Wright at 15.5%, Markwayne Mullin at 13.5%. That book is thin—$669 a day—so read it as sentiment rather than price. Beside it, the longest fuse here: whether the president leaves office before the term ends.

• Six names have resolved, and the book is still 90% one contract. Leavitt, Gabbard, Blanche, Bondi, Bongino and Chavez-DeRemer are all Yes. Kalshi's anchor still puts $212k of $236k daily volume on the Leavitt leg at 99.6¢. That is not forecasting—it is late settlement flow, and it inflates the headline volume figure on this book substantially.
• A high departure price is not always bad news for the official. Blanche near 98% before settlement reflected a promotion to Attorney General, not a firing. These contracts resolve on leaving the role, not on the reason—the single most common misreading of personnel books.
• Polymarket and Kalshi rank the survivors differently. David Sacks leads Polymarket's live field at 38.8% and is not near the top of Kalshi's. Kalshi has Amy Gleason at 46.5%; Polymarket does not price her prominently. When two books on the same question disagree on ordering rather than level, the difference is usually which names each exchange chose to list.
• The near end of the timing ladder keeps expiring No. July and August rungs on KXCABLEAVE both resolved No; before-September sits at 13% and before-October at 47%. The market has been consistently early on Cabinet departures all year.
• The Cabinet book is thin. $669 a day across a three-way tie between Kennedy, Wright and Mullin. Sentiment, not price.
• Polymarket settles faster. Leavitt resolved there while Kalshi's leg still trades. On resolution-adjacent contracts the venue spread is operational, not informational—worth knowing before treating it as an arbitrage.