White House Personnel 2026 — Press Secretary and the Cabinet

Every book on this page had settled. The Blanche confirmation resolved, the whip-count ladder paid out, the timing rungs all closed, and what was left was an archive turning zero dollars a day. This run repoints it at the live question in the same category: who replaces the White House Press Secretary, and when.

Kalshi's next Press Secretary book turns $160,354 in twenty-four hours against $777,642 of open interest—the deepest federal personnel market listed anywhere, and roughly ten times Polymarket's mirror at $15,990.

The two exchanges agree on the leader almost exactly: Scott Jennings at 39.5% on Kalshi and 38.8% on Polymarket. They agree on the runner-up too: Anna Kelly at 13.5% and 14.0%.

They do not agree on where the money goes. Alina Habba at 3.6% took $31,631 on Kalshi—the second-deepest contract in the book, within four thousand dollars of Jennings' own leg at eleven times the price. She took $1,377 on Polymarket. And Natalie Harp at 4.5% holds $109,151 of open interest, more than Anna Kelly's $88,470 at three times the price.

Rank the field by price and Jennings leads it. Rank it by money and Habba is a coin flip with him.

The field on both real-money books. Kalshi's Categorical on the left, Polymarket's on the right—same nine names at the top, prices within a point of each other all the way down, and a ten-to-one gap in turnover.

One structural note worth carrying: Kalshi's book includes a "No new person" contract at 1.5%, which took $12,519. Polymarket's does not. That single rung is the difference between a market on who and a market on whether, and it is the reason the two books' probabilities do not have to sum the same way.

Price against money, on the exchange that carries the depth.

By price: Jennings 39.5%, Kelly 13.5%, Cheung 6.7%, Martin 5.5%, Harp 4.5%, Pipko 4.5%, Habba 3.6%.

By twenty-four-hour volume: Jennings $35,854, Habba $31,631, Pipko's neighbour Harp $12,182, "No new person" $12,519, Martin $11,423, Kelly $10,517.

By open interest: Jennings $230,179, Harp $109,151, Habba $106,730, Kelly $88,470, Pipko $64,343, "No new person" $54,596.

Habba is seventh by price and second by both volume and open interest. Harp is fifth by price and second by open interest. The four contracts below are the price leader, the money's pick, the largest held longshot, and the contract that says nobody gets the job.

The timing books, which disagree by ten points on the same question.

Kalshi: 74.5% announced before October 1, 62% before September 15, 42.5% before September 8, 26.5% before September 1, 17% before August 28.

Polymarket: 64.5% by September 30, 31.5% by September 11, 19.5% by September 4, 11.5% by August 28.

Kalshi is ten points higher at the end of September and nine points higher at the start of it. Both books are thin—$3,415 and $3,940—but the spread is consistent across every comparable rung, not noise on one. And Kalshi's before-September-1 rung holds $16,399 of open interest, the largest position in either timing ladder, on a rung it prices at roughly one in four.

The cabinet queue, and the AG book this page was built on.

Who leaves next prices RFK Jr. at 17.5%, Markwayne Mullin and Chris Wright at 14.5%, Pete Hegseth at 11.5%—but Hegseth carries $17,499 of open interest, the most of any name and half again the leader's. Fourth by price, first by money, on a book turning $1,470 a day.

Alongside it, the contract that gave this workspace its slug: how many Attorneys General Trump has by January 2029. It prices two at 54.5% and three at 24%—a roughly one-in-three chance Todd Blanche is not the last—and it has still never traded a dollar.

The Press Secretary book's trajectory since the vacancy opened—how Jennings separated, and where the Habba flow entered.

• Habba at 3.6% is trading like a favourite. $31,631 of daily volume and $106,730 of open interest on a contract priced at eleven times below Jennings, on a book where Jennings' own leg took $35,854. If the market is right about the price, somebody is very wrong about the size; if it is right about the size, the price has a long way to move.
• A ten-point cross-exchange gap on timing. Kalshi 74.5% before October 1 against Polymarket 64.5% by September 30. Same question, same week, consistent spread across four comparable rungs. Both books are small enough that this may simply be an unarbitraged gap—which is itself the interesting fact.
• "No new person" at 1.5% took $12,519. Kalshi's book prices a 1-in-67 chance the role is never filled and traded more on that leg than on Anna Kelly at 13.5%. Polymarket has no equivalent contract, which makes the two books structurally non-comparable at the margin.
• Hegseth is the cabinet book's money. Fourth by price, first by open interest at $17,499. The departure book has been an unreliable signal before—this page previously logged a Blanche "departure" contract that resolved Yes on a promotion—so read it as positioning, not prediction.
• The AG count has never traded. Two Attorneys General at 54.5%, three at 24%, zero dollars since listing. If money ever arrives there it becomes the most interesting contract in federal personnel markets, because it is the only one asking about the whole term rather than the next hire.