AG Confirmation 2026 — Blanche confirmed on 50 votes

Todd Blanche was confirmed as Attorney General, and every book in this stack has now settled. Kalshi's next-AG Categorical resolved Yes on Blanche out of a 23-name field; Manifold's independent mirror, which spent the spring sixteen points below Kalshi on process risk, closed at 99% on the same name.

The forecast that mattered was never who—it was how narrowly. The whip-count Cumulative settled with Above 49 Yes and Above 50 No: exactly 50 senators voted to confirm, the thinnest possible margin. The market had priced Above 50 at roughly 59% the week before, so the central case was one vote too generous. The timing ladder was cleaner: before September 1 resolved Yes, before August 1 resolved No, and the confirmation landed in the first week of August, just ahead of the recess.

Kalshi's settled Categorical against Manifold's independent book on the same question. Kalshi carried the depth throughout; Manifold carried the dissent, pricing a meaningfully higher chance the nomination failed or was withdrawn. The two converged in the final fortnight as the Judiciary Committee vote removed the process risk the smaller book had been charging for—and both finished on Blanche.

The winning contract priced directly, next to the trajectory of the full field. The history chart shows the collapse: a genuinely contested book through the spring, then a single name absorbing the distribution once the nomination moved.

The timing ladder is the cleanest part of the record. KXBLANCHEJUDICIARY-27 settled Yes on August 5 when the nomination advanced out of Judiciary, and KXAGCONF-26 settled Yes at the before September 1 rung days later. The rungs at before June 1, before July 1 and before August 1 all resolved No—the ladder read the delay correctly for four straight months before catching the actual date.

The arithmetic underneath, and the one place the book was wrong. The whip-count Cumulative settled at exactly 50 yea votes: Above 49 Yes, Above 50 No. Against that, the market had priced Above 49 at ~93%, Above 50 at ~59% and Above 51 at ~17%—so it had the shape right and the level one vote high.

The per-senator book named the defections correctly. Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell voted No, as did John Fetterman—the most-traded individual name on the board in the final days. Thom Tillis, Rand Paul, Bill Cassidy, John Cornyn, Tommy Tuberville, John Thune, Jon Husted and John Curtis all voted Yes.

One correction to how this workspace read the churn book. Kalshi's Trump administration departures contract on Todd Blanche settled Yes on August 10—but the rules text resolves on "leaves as Deputy Attorney General," and he left that job by being confirmed to the one above it. The Yes is a promotion, not an exit. Read at face value it looks like the market called a departure it did not call.

What is still genuinely open is how many Attorneys General Trump has by the end of the term. The Range book gives two at 56%, three at 24%, four at 4%, five at 3.5%—so a one-in-three chance Blanche is not the last. It has traded zero dollars and carries $7,260 of open interest across all rungs.

That is the state of this category now: one settled confirmation, one settled contract that says less than it appears to, and a forward-looking book nobody is trading.

• The confirmation vote was the market's miss. The whip-count book priced above 50 yea votes at 59% and the vote came in at exactly 50. Everything else about this nomination—who got it, roughly when—the books had right; the one number that required counting senators, they did not.
• A settled contract that does not mean what it says. The Blanche departure leg resolved Yes on a promotion. Any automated read of Kalshi's administration-turnover series will record a departure that did not happen, which is worth knowing before treating that series as a personnel signal.
• The AG-count book at 56% for two. A one-in-three implied chance of another Attorney General before January 2029, on zero volume. If the market ever puts money there it becomes the most interesting contract on this page.
• How fast the field collapsed. The nominee book carried a real field until the announcement and then went to a single name inside a day. Nomination markets price the president's choice, not the Senate's, and they resolve discontinuously.
• Nothing new is listed. No supported exchange carries a live federal AG contract beyond the count book. The state Attorney General races—New York at $393 a day, twelve others at zero—are the only AG contracts with any tape at all, and there is barely any.