Fed Chair Transition Tracker

Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting on June 17, and the committee held the funds rate steady with zero dissents—a clean handoff from the Powell era. The confirmation fight and the transition itself are now settled, so this workspace shifts from "who gets the gavel" to the Warsh era itself: how the rate path looks under the new chair, and the political-risk books around him. The dated June chair and dissent markets have resolved and rotated out; July's meeting-specific dissent and chair books will slot back in once Kalshi lists them.

Warsh's first months. The Kalshi Fed decision in Jul 2026? Categorical is his next decision (July 28–29); Polymarket's per-chair rate-cut Categorical reads how the market expects policy to differ by who holds the chair.

The confirmation fight is settled and Powell's run as chair is over; the political-risk books that replace it are whether Trump publicly criticizes his own pick and when Powell exits the Fed board entirely.

What to watch across the stack

• Warsh's July decision. The first read on whether a Warsh-led Fed moves differently from Powell's. June held unanimously; July is the next test.
• Rate policy by chair. Polymarket's per-chair Categorical isolates how much the market thinks the chair identity—not just the data—drives the path.
• Trump vs. his own pick. The Kalshi Trump attacks Warsh Multiple is the cleanest gauge of how long the honeymoon lasts once decisions start landing.
• Powell's board exit. Whether Powell stays on as a governor after handing over the chair, or leaves the board outright, shapes the committee's balance under Warsh.