Fed Chair Transition Tracker

Kevin Warsh has now chaired two FOMC meetings—June 17 and July 29—and the committee held the funds rate steady at both, the second without a cut despite easing pressure. The confirmation fight and the transition are long settled, so this workspace tracks the Warsh era itself: how the rate path looks under the new chair, and the political-risk books around him. The notable shift is that the market now prices a 25bp hike as the likeliest September outcome, narrowly ahead of another hold—a hawkish turn for a chair many expected to cut. Dated June and July meeting-specific dissent and chair books have resolved and rotated out.

The Kalshi Fed decision in Sep 2026? Categorical is Warsh's next decision (September 15–16); Polymarket's per-chair rate-cut Categorical reads how the market expects policy to differ by who holds the chair.

The confirmation fight is settled and Powell's run as chair is over; the political-risk books that replace it are whether Trump publicly criticizes his own pick and when Powell exits the Fed board entirely.

• Warsh's September decision. After two straight holds, the book has flipped to favor a 25bp hike in September—the first real test of whether a Warsh-led Fed breaks from the hold pattern.
• Rate policy by chair. Polymarket's per-chair Categorical isolates how much the market thinks the chair identity—not just the data—drives the path.
• Trump vs. his own pick. The Kalshi Trump attacks Warsh Multiple is the cleanest gauge of how long the honeymoon lasts once decisions start landing.
• Powell's board exit. Whether Powell stays on as a governor after handing over the chair, or leaves the board outright, shapes the committee's balance under Warsh.