Fed Chair Transition Tracker

Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the next Fed chair. The confirmation fight is settled, so this workspace now tracks the handoff: who actually holds the gavel at the June FOMC meeting, what the market thinks the rate path looks like under the new chair, and the Warsh-era political dynamics that replace the confirmation-vote book.

Next milestone: the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting—the first decision where the Powell-to-Warsh transition could show up in who chairs the room.

Anchor: Kalshi — Who will chair the June FOMC meeting?.

For Powell's departure-timing ladder and the firing-attempt binaries, see the companion Powell at the Fed workspace. Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through the transition.

Kalshi prices who chairs the June 17 FOMC meeting directly; Polymarket's "predicted Fed rate under each Fed chair" Categorical is the rate-policy companion—it quantifies the funds-rate path the market attaches to each possible chair. Read side by side, they connect the transition question to the rate-decision question.

A leadership handoff tends to show up first in the dissent column. Kalshi's Range on how many votes dissent at the June meeting and its Multiple on who dissents are the cleanest read on whether the committee is splintering as the chair changes hands. The Range chart form is visually distinctive and showcases the spread across the dissent-count interval.

The confirmation-vote book is gone; the political-risk book that replaces it is whether Trump publicly criticizes his own pick. Kalshi's Warsh-criticism Multiple is the new political-risk leg, paired here with Polymarket's Categorical on when Powell actually departs—the supply side of the same transition.

• Who chairs June. If the Kalshi Categorical stops pricing Powell as the near-certain chair of the June meeting, the handoff is happening faster than the calendar implied.
• Rate path under the new chair. Polymarket's "predicted Fed rate under each Fed chair" is the bridge between this workspace and the FOMC Tracker—watch whether the implied path shifts now that the chair is settled.
• Dissent count. A widening dissent Range into June is the leading indicator that the committee is repricing the transition, not just the rate decision.
• Warsh-criticism Multiple. Trump criticizing his own confirmed pick would be the first real Warsh-era political shock—the Multiple drifts slowly but would spike on any direct comment.
• Powell's departure. The "when will Powell depart" Categorical is the supply side of the handoff; cross-reference it with the Powell at the Fed workspace for the full picture.