US Gas Prices Tracker

Kalshi lists AAA national average gasoline on five horizons—today, tomorrow, week-ending, month-end and Election Day—plus year-high, year-low, a California ladder and the gasoline CPI print. Read together they are a term structure on the pump.

The front has flattened and the back has steepened. Yesterday's curve ran daily $4.09, weekly $4.13, month-end $4.15. Today tomorrow's book implies $4.12, the week-ending book implies $4.12, and month-end has jumped to $4.20—a five-cent move at the back with the front standing still. Election Day sits around $3.83.

Today's daily book turned $226,761, roughly nine times Tuesday's $26,066 and the deepest single gasoline contract this workspace has recorded. It settles within the hour, and every one of its rungs is currently quoted at a 50% midpoint—the market makers have pulled quotes into expiry, so read that ladder as volume, not as price. The six deepest legs are all within two and a half cents of $4.10 and together carry $191,865, or 92% of the book.

Yesterday 80% of the weekly traded on rungs priced 97–99.5%. Today that has broken up: the weekly's deepest leg is Above $4.08 at 94.5%, but Above $4.16 at 4.5% and Above $4.18 at 4.0% together took $15,154, 26% of the book.

The week-ending August 24 book turns $62,568 against $101,961 of open interest, and the month-end book $43,151 against $295,816—the largest standing position in the complex.

The weekly's decision rungs:

• Above $4.080 — 94.5%, $21,480
• Above $4.100 — 59.5%, $3,811
• Above $4.120 — 25.5%, $7,078
• Above $4.160 — 4.5%, $8,345

So the weekly prices a print between $4.10 and $4.12 with the mass just above four-ten, and only one chance in four of clearing $4.12 by Monday. The month-end ladder disagrees: Above $4.10 at 59.5% and Above $4.30 at 11.5%, implying roughly $4.20—eight cents of climb in the six days after the weekly settles.

The tail is where the money is again. The month-end book put $3,593 on Above $5.00 at 0.5%, 12% of its flow, on a strike a dollar above where gasoline actually is.

The November 3 Election Day book implies roughly $3.83—Above $3.75 at 56.5%, Above $4.00 at 36.5%, Above $4.50 at 15.5%. Against a front book at $4.12 and a month-end at $4.20, the market is pricing a thirty-seven-cent fade between now and the first Tuesday in November.

It is also the thinnest deep book on the page: $875 of twenty-four-hour volume against $82,802 of open interest, a ratio of ninety-five to one. Yesterday it traded $6,315 on a fourteen-cent move; today it has gone quiet again. Beside it, the California year-high ladder—$169 a day against $62,596 of open interest, with 59% of today's flow on Above $6.80 at 15%.

The 2026 maximum and minimum books frame the whole year, and only one side of them trades: the year-high ladder turned $1,591 today against $636,522 of open interest; the year-low turned $31.

The year-low book was dropped from this stack this run. At thirty-one dollars a day across a ladder whose Below $3.80 rung shows a 50% midpoint on $6,929 of open interest, it is a quote sheet rather than a market, and the year-high ladder carries the same information from the side people actually trade.

The high ladder implies a 2026 peak around $4.60—Above $4.60 at 44.5% on $76,043 of open interest—and its flow is entirely in the tail: $692 of $977, or 71%, on the $6.60 and $6.80 rungs, priced at 4.5% and 5.5%, carrying $52,964 of open interest between them. With the front book at $4.12, those strikes need a sixty percent move in four months.

Diesel's daily book turned $22,408, more than double Tuesday's $10,111, and like the gasoline daily it is quoted flat at 50% across every rung into settlement—$5.505 and $5.515 took $6,202 between them, half the book. Against a gasoline front of $4.12 that keeps the spread near $1.39.

The September 11 gasoline CPI book is the bridge from pump prices to the inflation print. It implies an index level just under 347—Above $344 at 90.5%, Above $347 at 44%, Above $348 at 33.5%—on $745 a day against $23,388 of open interest. It is the one contract here that converts a retail price into a BLS number, and it is priced almost exactly at the coin flip.

For the crude leg behind all of this, Brent's daily book implies roughly $94 on $17,655; the full crude term structure lives in WTI Crude Oil Tracker.

• The curve steepened at the back, not the front. Weekly $4.12 and month-end $4.20 against yesterday's $4.13 and $4.15. Six days apart, eight cents of implied climb. If the weekly settles at $4.10 on Monday the month-end book has to move a long way in a short week.
• $226,761 into a book that settles in an hour, quoted flat at 50%. Nine times Tuesday's volume, 92% of it inside two and a half cents of $4.10, and no live two-sided quote left. That is what a pinned expiry looks like from the outside.
• Election Day prices a thirty-seven-cent fade and nobody is trading it. $875 a day against $82,802 of open interest. The claim is large; the conviction behind today's version of it is not.
• Seventy-one percent of the year-high book on strikes needing a sixty percent move. $6.60 and $6.80 at 4.5% and 5.5%. The same shape shows up in gold, in the BMW winner book and in the Fed decision book today—deepest flow on the cheapest legs.
• The CPI bridge sits on a coin flip. Above 347 at 44%. The August gasoline CPI prints September 11 and this is the only contract that connects the pump to the print.
• Yesterday's read that broke. This workspace called an $4.06 pin breaking upward "across every horizon at once." The front has since stopped climbing and only the back moved. One of the two horizons is wrong.