US Gas Prices Tracker

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Every contract that has traded on tomorrow's diesel board sits on five adjacent strikes, and each one holds exactly 1,011 contracts. Above $5.890, $5.895, $5.900, $5.905 and $5.910—identical size on all five, and zero on the other sixteen rungs of the ladder. That is not a market; that is one order sweeping a block of strikes and then nothing.

What the untraded rungs are quoted at is the more useful number. Above $5.945 is 12 bid / 98 ask. Above $5.960 is 13 bid / 99 ask. Sixteen of the twenty-one rungs are quoted more than fifty points wide, and most of those are wider than eighty. With spreads that size the midpoint stops meaning anything, which is exactly why the board inverts four times: Above $5.945 marks 55.0% and Above $5.950 marks 57.0%, a higher strike priced above a lower one, on two rungs where nobody has ever traded and the quotes are eighty-six points apart.

The retail gasoline board beside it does not have this problem. Tomorrow's US gas ladder turns $9,326 across seventeen rungs with no rung quoted wider than fifty points, and its shape is clean except for one flat spot: Above $4.1850, Above $4.1900, Above $4.1950 and Above $4.2000 are all marked 97.0%, carrying 9,011 contracts between them. Four different strikes, one price—the market is saying the answer is above all four and is not distinguishing between them.

The state boards split the same way. California turns $4,607 with no inversions and nothing quoted wide. Pennsylvania turns $6,936 with no inversions but thirteen wide rungs—a board that is priced in order and still barely quoted.

Where the standing money actually is: the 2026 boards. "How high will US gas prices get in 2026?" turns $7,125 today against 688,037 contracts of open interest—ninety-six times the daily flow. Election Day gas prices holds another 115,785, is cleanly ordered, and is the one board on this page whose settlement anybody has a reason to care about in advance.

Below: the two daily ladders, the inverted diesel pair, the state boards, the long books, and today's WTI settlement.

Tomorrow's retail gasoline ladder against the September diesel board. Gas turns $9,326 across seventeen rungs, no wide quotes, two one-notch inversions. The September diesel board turns $4,125 against 20,270 of open interest and inverts four times, including Above $6.00 at 62.0% below Above $6.10 at 71.0%—a nine-point crossing on a monthly board.

Above $5.945 is 12 bid / 98 ask, marked 55.0%. Above $5.950 is 16 bid / 98 ask, marked 57.0%.

Diesel cannot settle above $5.950 without also settling above $5.945, so the lower strike cannot be worth less. It is marked two points cheaper. Both rungs show zero volume and zero open interest, and both are quoted eighty-six points wide—which is the whole explanation. When the bid and the ask are that far apart the midpoint is an artifact, not a price, and the ladder's ordering falls out of it.

Tomorrow's daily diesel board against this week's. The daily board turns $5,055, all of it on five adjacent strikes holding 1,011 contracts each, and quotes sixteen of its twenty-one rungs wider than fifty points. The weekly board turns $14,956 on 55,341 of open interest, quotes nothing wide, and inverts twice by a notch. Same fuel, same venue, seven days apart, and only one of them is a functioning book.

California and Pennsylvania for tomorrow. California turns $4,607 across seventeen rungs with no inversions and no wide quotes—the tidiest ladder in the workspace. Pennsylvania turns $6,936, more volume than California, and still leaves thirteen of its rungs quoted more than fifty points wide. Volume and quote quality are not the same thing on these boards.

The two boards that hold the real positions. "How high will US gas prices get in 2026?" turns $7,125 today and carries 688,037 contracts of open interest—the largest position in this workspace by an order of magnitude, and a board that only moves on a genuine supply event. Its two small inversions sit up in the $6.00-plus tail where nothing trades.

"US gas prices on Election Day" holds 115,785 contracts, turns $7,452, and is cleanly ordered end to end. It settles November 3 and is the only board here with a date anyone has circled.

Below them, today's WTI settlement: $154,004 of volume, 178,274 of open interest, settling at 18:30 UTC, with a single one-notch inversion up at Above $90.99 / Above $91.49 where $8,959 has traded.

The retail gas, California and Pennsylvania boards settle at 14:00 UTC tomorrow. WTI settles at 18:30 UTC today. The daily diesel board runs to September 17 and the weekly to September 21.

  • Whether the sixteen unquoted diesel rungs ever get a two-sided market. Until they do, every inversion on that board is a spread artifact and should be read as one.
  • The five strikes holding 1,011 contracts each. If a sixth rung ever prints, the shape of that ladder changes completely—right now one order is the entire board.
  • The flat 97.0% across four gas strikes from $4.1850 to $4.2000. Either the market genuinely cannot separate them or the top of that ladder is stale.
  • The 688,037 contracts on the 2026 high-water board against $7,125 of daily flow. That ratio is the clearest statement on this page about where the conviction is: not in the dailies.
  • Election Day gas at 115,785 contracts and cleanly priced. It is the board to watch as November approaches, and the one a reader should care about more than tomorrow's ladder.
  • WTI settling this afternoon at $91-plus, on 178,274 contracts. The daily fuel boards are downstream of it.