2026 Federal Election Law & Legislation Tracker

The SAVE America Act—the proof-of-citizenship voter registration bill—anchors this workspace through Kalshi's KXELECTIONBILL enactment-timing ladder. Each rung is a binary on whether the bill becomes law before a given date, so the ladder prices not just whether it passes but when, and the slope between rungs is the market's read on floor-calendar pressure ahead of the November midterms. The full year-end rung now sits under 10%, and volume on the series has thinned to roughly $700 in 24 hours from the six-figure turnover it carried in the spring—attention has moved on as the calendar has closed.

This workspace pairs that ladder with the Senate-vote timing book, the broader "which bills become law in 2026" Multiple, FISA Section 702 reauthorization, crypto market structure legislation, and the state-level California voter ID initiative—the only leg here with a cross-exchange mirror. Legislative outcome markets are close to Kalshi-native; the depth simply is not replicated on other venues, which is itself part of the story.

Two views of the same bill. KXELECTIONBILL prices enactment by date; KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR prices when the Senate takes a floor vote. A gap between them—vote timing pricing well ahead of enactment timing—is the market saying it expects a vote that fails or stalls in conference.

The August 1 rung has resolved No, so the nearest live gate is now September 1—and it prices at well under 1%, meaning the market sees no chance of enactment before Labor Day. The November 1 rung is the one that matters politically, since enactment before the midterms is the outcome both parties are actually contesting; it sits near 6.5%. Reading them side by side gives the market's implied probability of an autumn push versus none at all.

Adjacent context—Kalshi's KXBILLS Multiple prices a basket of candidate bills against a single 2026 deadline, while FISA Section 702 reauthorization and crypto market structure legislation each carry their own timing ladders. Together they frame how much floor time Congress is expected to have left.

California's November 3 voter ID ballot initiative is the only market in this stack listed on more than one venue. Kalshi carries it as a Single and Manifold mirrors it as a binary. Both books are thin, so treat the spread between them as a liquidity artifact rather than a genuine disagreement—but the pair is useful as a check on whether the federal and state election law questions are being priced consistently.

• Ladder slope is the real signal. The rungs now run from under 1% at September 1 to roughly 10% at January 1, 2027. That shallow, monotonic climb is the market saying the bill dies quietly on the calendar rather than failing at a specific gate—there is no cliff anywhere in the ladder.
• Settled rungs are the historical record. The June 1, July 1 and August 1 rungs have all resolved No. Each expiry that passes without enactment compresses probability into the remaining rungs, so the ladder mechanically steepens over time even absent news.
• Volume has left the series. KXELECTIONBILL turned over six figures a day in the spring and is under $1k now. Thin books on long-dated legislative questions drift on very little flow—treat small price moves here as noise unless the underlying calendar actually changes.
• Senate vote timing versus enactment. These two ladders are the cleanest available read on the difference between "gets a vote" and "becomes law"—a distinction most legislative commentary collapses.
• Kalshi-native depth. Federal legislation is one of the clearest cases of single-venue concentration on the board. Polymarket and Manifold list almost nothing here, which means there is no cross-exchange arbitrage check on these prices.