2026 Federal Election Law & Legislation Tracker

The SAVE America Act—the proof-of-citizenship voter registration bill—anchors this workspace through Kalshi's KXELECTIONBILL enactment-timing ladder. Each rung is a binary on whether the bill becomes law before a given date, so the ladder prices not just whether it passes but when.

Volume came back and the odds went down. The series turned over roughly $700 a day a month ago; it did $16,656 in the last twenty-four hours. Over the same stretch the politically decisive November 1 rung fell from about 6.5% to 4%, and the whole ladder flattened: September 1 at 1%, October 1 at 3%, December 1 at 7%, January 1, 2027 at 8.4%. Twenty-four times the flow, and the market is less convinced than it was.

The open interest tells a different story than the volume. The series carries $1,296,019 outstanding against that $16,656 of daily turnover—an eighty-to-one ratio. And it is concentrated in the wrong places: the settled before August 1 rung still shows $465,992, and the live before September 1 rung holds $221,828 while priced at one percent. The rungs actually taking today's flow, October and December, hold $38,118 and $61,185 between them.

The rest of the stack—Senate vote timing, the 2026 bills basket, FISA Section 702, crypto market structure—frames how much floor time Congress is expected to have left before the midterms recess absorbs it.

Two views of the same bill, and the gap between them is now the most legible thing in this workspace. KXVOTESAVEAMERICA prices a Senate floor vote before October 1 at 23%. KXELECTIONBILL prices enactment before October 1 at 3%. Twenty points of daylight between "gets a vote" and "becomes law"—the market expects a floor vote that fails or dies in conference. Three of the vote ladder's rungs (June 13, June 27, August 8) have already resolved No.

The August 1 rung resolved No, so the nearest live gate is September 1. It prices 1%—and holds $221,828 of open interest, six times what the two rungs taking actual flow hold combined. Somebody is carrying a large position on a proposition this book says will not happen.

Beside it, the November 1 rung: enactment before the midterms, the outcome both parties are actually contesting. It has slipped to 4% from 6.5% a month ago, on $705 of twenty-four-hour volume against $89,502 outstanding.

Adjacent context. Kalshi's KXBILLS Multiple prices a basket of candidate bills against a single 2026 deadline—its leader is now defense-contractor stock-buyback restriction at 76%, ahead of college sports federalization at 35% and export-control chip security at 29%. FISA Section 702 and crypto market structure each carry their own timing ladders.

The two contracts below are both Kalshi books about the same statute, and they do not agree.

KXBILLS-FISA—FISA Section 702 reauthorization becomes law in 2026—prices 7.6%. KXFISAEXTEND's before October 1, 2026 rung prices 29%. October 1 is inside 2026, so the second is a strict subset of the first, and it trades at nearly four times the price. One of these books is wrong by twenty-one points and there is no arbitrage desk on the board to close it.

The reason is structural rather than mysterious: the basket book turned over $344 and the timing ladder $648. Both are effectively unattended. The FISA ladder has now resolved No on ten consecutive rungs—June 13, 14, 15, 19, 25, July 1, 15, August 1, 15—while carrying $285,679 of open interest.

The California voter ID pair that previously sat here has come off the page: the Kalshi leg trades zero at 41% on $1,207 of open interest, and the Manifold mirror is thinner still. A cross-exchange pair with no flow on either side is a liquidity artifact, not a disagreement.

• The FISA contradiction is the cleanest mispricing on the board. 7.6% in the bills basket, 29% on the timing ladder, same statute, same exchange, same year. Nothing about the two rule sets explains twenty-one points. Both books trade under $700 a day, which is the whole explanation and also the reason it will persist.
• Volume up, probability down. KXELECTIONBILL went from $700 a day to $16,656 while the November rung fell from 6.5% to 4%. Rising flow on a falling price is informed selling, not fading attention—the opposite of what the thin-book story would predict.
• Open interest is stranded on the near rungs. $221,828 sits on before September 1 at 1%, and $465,992 still sits on the settled August rung. Meanwhile October and December, the rungs taking today's flow, hold $99,303 between them. Position and opinion are in different places on this ladder.
• A vote at 23%, a law at 3%. The Senate-vote ladder and the enactment ladder are the cleanest available read on a distinction most legislative commentary collapses. Twenty points is the market's price for conference-committee mortality.
• Kalshi-native depth, and what that costs. Federal legislation is the clearest case of single-venue concentration on the board—Polymarket and Manifold list essentially nothing. No cross-exchange check is exactly why an internal 7.6-versus-29 can sit there uncorrected.
• The Clarity Act's September rung. $1,151,554 of open interest on a leg priced at 1%—the single largest concentration in this stack, and the same pattern as SAVE America's near gate. See the Crypto Clarity Act workspace for the full ladder.