Crypto Clarity Act 2026

The Digital Asset Clarity Act cleared Senate Banking 15-9 on May 14, 2026 and has sat without a floor schedule ever since. That stall is now the story: Kalshi's Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess? prices a pre-recess vote at just 8% on roughly $287k in 24-hour volume—by a wide margin the deepest CLARITY book on any exchange, and it settles August 8.

Section 308 preempts state securities laws for digital commodities but does NOT touch state gambling/gaming law as applied to event contracts—the gap the AGA/IGA joint letter (May 16) asked the Senate to close with a floor amendment barring prediction market platforms from offering nationwide sports betting under the "event contracts" framing. This workspace tracks the near-term vote-timing book, the binary "does it pass in 2026" market across four exchanges, and Kalshi's granular per-Senator and vote-count series.

Four single binaries across Polymarket, Manifold and PredictIt asking the same question—does CLARITY become law before year-end. Polymarket carries the depth at roughly $366k in 24-hour volume and prices it at 15.5%; Manifold agrees at 14%; PredictIt, with its $850 position cap, is the outlier at 36%.

Kalshi prices two complementary sub-markets on the Senate vote itself: a Multiple over which specific Senators vote yes, and a Cumulative on how many vote yes in total. Both are thin—about $1.2k and $50 in 24-hour volume—because the vote-timing book above has absorbed the attention. They still resolve when a floor vote happens, and together they back out a per-Senator vote-probability surface.

• The August 8 gate is the live trade. At 8% with $287k behind it, the recess book is the market's clearest statement that CLARITY has no floor time this session. Watch whether it decays smoothly to zero or reprices on a scheduling headline—the second would drag every downstream book with it.
• PredictIt is the outlier, and it usually is. PredictIt prices 2026 enactment at 36% against Polymarket's 15.5% and Manifold's 14%. The $850 position cap means the price reflects concentrated conviction that no one can arbitrage away, not a better forecast.
• September is the next real window. Manifold's September Single at ~18% is the only book pricing the post-recess calendar directly. A September vote would still leave conference and signature inside the year, which is what keeps the 2026 enactment books above 10% at all.
• Cumulative vote count (Kalshi) drift. Floor cloture needs 60 votes; a reconciliation pathway needs 50 plus a tie-break. A modal print around 55–58 implies "60-vote cloture, just barely"; around 50–53 implies "reconciliation only." The book is too thin right now to read cleanly—it will thicken the moment a vote is scheduled.
• Per-Senator vote pie (Kalshi). Watch the median-Senator print, not the leader. Tossup-state Democrats carry most of the conditional probability mass on whether cloture clears.
• The event contracts gap is still open. Nothing in the current text closes the state gambling-law question for prediction market platforms. If a floor amendment adding that language ever gets attached, it becomes the reason this bill matters to this industry rather than a general crypto-structure story.

The nearest gate on the whole stack. Kalshi's Single resolves Yes only if the Senate takes any recorded vote on CLARITY before August 8, and at 8% the book has effectively written off the pre-recess window. Beside it, Manifold's independent Single on a September passage sits near 18%—so the market's read is not that the bill is dead, but that it slips past the summer.