Crypto Clarity Act 2026

What this workspace tracks

The Digital Asset Clarity Act cleared Senate Banking 15-9 on May 14, 2026 and is now awaiting a floor schedule. Section 308 preempts state securities laws for digital commodities but does NOT touch state gambling/gaming law as applied to event contracts—the gap the AGA/IGA joint letter (May 16) is asking the Senate to close with a floor amendment that would bar prediction market platforms from offering nationwide sports betting under the "event contracts" framing. This workspace tracks the binary "does it pass in 2026" market across four exchanges (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Kalshi via Senate-vote sub-markets), plus Kalshi's granular "which Senators vote yes" and "how many Senators vote yes" series.

Three single-binary markets across Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt asking the same question—does Clarity become law before year-end. Spread between the three is the cleanest cross-exchange read on regulatory probability.

Kalshi prices two complementary sub-markets on the Senate vote itself: a Multiple over which specific Senators will vote yes (categorical pie), and a Cumulative on how many Senators in total vote yes (Range bucket). Both resolve when the floor vote happens; together they let you back out a per-Senator vote-probability surface.

What to watch.

• Polymarket vs Manifold vs PredictIt spread on the same yes/no. All three ask "is Clarity law by year-end 2026"—divergence across the three is interesting in itself. Manifold tends to underprice US-regulatory questions where the regulatory-process-savvy audience is thinner; PredictIt's $850 position cap means concentrated informed traders move it more crisply than retail-volume Polymarket on small information.
• Cumulative vote count (Kalshi) drift. Floor cloture needs 60 votes; reconciliation pathway needs 50 + tie-break. The Cumulative ladder is the cleanest read on which mechanism the market thinks gets used. A modal print around 55–58 implies "60-vote cloture, just barely"; around 50–53 implies "reconciliation only."
• Per-Senator vote pie (Kalshi). Watch the median-Senator print, not the leader. Tossup-state Democrats (Ossoff, Gallego, Slotkin, Rosen, Gillibrand) carry most of the conditional probability mass on whether cloture clears.
• Outside-spend campaign pressure. FairPredicts launched a six-figure DC ad buy on May 18 timed to the May 20 Senate Commerce hearing. The campaign is structured against Kalshi specifically but argues the broader "platforms are buying their regulatory environment" frame that overlaps with the Clarity Act amendment fight. If the AGA/IGA floor amendment to add prediction-market language to Clarity gains traction, the Polymarket print should re-rate downward.
• AGA/IGA letter status. The May 16 joint letter asking Congress to amend Clarity to bar event contracts from sports/casino-style markets is the operative external-industry pressure point. Bill Miller (AGA CEO) testified at the May 20 Senate Commerce "No Sure Bets" hearing, calling prediction market platforms "backdoor sports betting operations"; with senators broadly skeptical of the event-contracts framing, the Clarity floor-amendment risk stays live.