2026 FIFA World Cup

The winner book across every exchange

The 2026 men's World Cup is the single largest sporting event on prediction markets this year, hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico. This workspace tracks the outright winner on Polymarket and Kalshi, the cross-exchange spread on the tournament favorite, and adjacent markets on continent-of-winner and the Golden Boot top scorer.

Final: July 19, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ.
Group stage kicks off: June 11, 2026.

Copy this workspace to your account to keep tracking as the tournament unfolds.

Polymarket and Kalshi both list the tournament winner as a full Categorical. Pies show the complete 32-team distribution so the long tail is visible alongside the consensus favorites.

Spain enters as the reigning Euro champion and the cross-exchange favorite. The Polymarket and Kalshi spot markets on Spain-to-win are the single cleanest reads on where the book is converging.

Zooming out—Polymarket's continent-of-winner Categorical captures the UEFA-vs-CONMEBOL spread, and Kalshi's Golden Boot market is the top-scorer companion view.

• Spain spread across exchanges. When Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on Spain by more than a couple of points, the cheaper side is usually the edge—book depth differs, but the underlying is identical.
• Continent pie as a proxy for style. A UEFA tilt concentrates probability in Spain/France/England/Germany/Portugal; a CONMEBOL tilt pulls toward Brazil/Argentina. The continent event repositions first when a major upset hits.
• Golden Boot as a tournament-narrative gauge. The top-scorer market leads the winner market when a single team starts running up high-variance scorelines.
• History chart into the group stage. Watch for early-June repricing as squads are named and friendlies settle.