Venezuela leader 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Who leads Venezuela through 2026—Polymarket and Kalshi side-by-side

Polymarket and Kalshi both list deep Categorical books on who officially or de facto leads Venezuela at year-end 2026. Polymarket's year-end book runs across 16 candidates; Kalshi's KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01 mirrors the same year-end question across 8 names. The June 1 near-term Kalshi checkpoint has settled and rolled off; the year-end durables are the remaining live view.

Maduro entered 2026 still in power despite the 2024 election dispute, the Machado/González opposition challenge, and rolling US sanctions. The markets now price who controls the office at the durable year-end horizon. Cross-exchange spreads on any individual contender are the cleanest read on whether Polymarket's deeper book and Kalshi's narrower field agree on the trajectory.

Year-end leadership—cross-exchange anchor

Polymarket's venezuela-leader-end-of-2026 is the deepest book (16 candidates, $148K/24h); Kalshi's KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01 mirrors the same year-end question across 8 candidates. The cross-exchange spread on Maduro (and on the most-watched opposition names) is the read on whether the two books agree on regime continuity.

Probability timeline—Polymarket year-end book

The price trajectory of Polymarket's year-end leader book shows how Maduro's continuity probability has evolved through 2026. Watch for moves around sanctions-policy announcements, regional summits, and any opposition-coalition events.

  • Maduro continuity is the dominant outcome on both year-end books. The cross-exchange spread on his line is the cleanest signal—a widening gap means one of the books is pricing a recent event differently.
  • Year-end horizons only. With the June 1 Kalshi checkpoint settled, the cross-exchange read is now purely on the December 31 question. Watch for whether year-end Maduro probability drifts on sanctions, recognition, or diplomatic moves through the back half of 2026.
  • Opposition contenders (Machado, González) trade meaningful probability despite ongoing exclusion from official ballots. Their lines move on US recognition policy and any regional diplomatic shifts.
  • Kalshi's de facto vs. officially-in-power phrasing matters. The Kalshi year-end question is explicitly "de facto leader"—the same question Polymarket frames as "leader"—but the framing nuance can produce small persistent spreads on contested-power contenders.