US Jobs Report Tracker

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

The monthly jobs report is the macro print the Fed watches most closely between inflation readings—and prediction markets price it as a full strike ladder, the same shape as the FOMC and CPI books. June 2026 data printed Thursday, July 2; the anchor now rolls to Kalshi's payrolls Cumulative for the next release: July 2026 data, printing Friday, August 7 at 8:30 AM ET, paired with the matching unemployment-rate ladder.

Below the anchor row: the high-frequency lead-in prints (weekly jobless claims, ADP private payrolls) and the durable year-scale question—how high unemployment gets in 2026.

Anchor: Kalshi KXPAYROLLS-26JUL. This workspace rolls forward to each next report as prints settle.

The high-frequency lead-ins that move the monthly ladder between releases: this week's initial jobless claims and ADP's private-payrolls print two days ahead of the official number.

The year-scale view: Kalshi's Cumulative on how high unemployment gets before 2027, next to the bucket Categorical on where the July rate itself lands—the medium-term backdrop every monthly print reprices.

  • Claims as the weekly steer. Initial jobless claims print every Thursday; a sustained move through the consensus bucket usually drags the monthly payrolls ladder within a session.
  • ADP vs. official. ADP lands two days before the BLS number and correlates loosely; when the ADP bucket and the payrolls ladder disagree, the official-print repricing is the trade the book sets up.
  • Fed linkage. The unemployment-ceiling Cumulative is the bridge to the rate path: a break above the consensus bucket feeds straight into the cut-count books on the FOMC Tracker workspace.