US Jobs Report Tracker

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

The monthly jobs report is the macro print the Fed watches most closely between inflation readings—and prediction markets price it as a full strike ladder, the same shape as the FOMC and CPI books. July 2026 data prints tomorrow, Friday, August 7 at 8:30 AM ET, and the anchor pair is live: Kalshi's payrolls Cumulative crosses 50% between +70,000 and +80,000, and the unemployment ladder puts the modal print at 4.2–4.3%, with the bucket Categorical splitting almost evenly between the two.

Below the anchor row: the high-frequency lead-in prints—this morning's weekly claims book and ADP's private payrolls, which already landed—and the durable year-scale question of how high unemployment gets in 2026.

Anchor: Kalshi KXPAYROLLS-26JUL. This workspace rolls forward to each next report as prints settle.

The high-frequency lead-ins into tomorrow's number. Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 settle this morning, and ADP's private-payrolls print already landed on August 5, resolving between +25,000 and +50,000—well under where the official payrolls ladder above still centers. That gap is the setup going into Friday.

The year-scale view: Kalshi's Cumulative on how high unemployment gets before 2027, next to the bucket Categorical on where the July rate itself lands—the medium-term backdrop every monthly print reprices.

  • ADP already disagreed. ADP's July print came in between +25k and +50k, while the official payrolls ladder still prices the median near +70k. The two series correlate loosely and diverge often, but a live 25k-plus gap into the release is the widest this workspace has carried.
  • The unemployment book is the deeper one. KXU3-26JUL turns over roughly $118k in 24-hour volume against about $68k on payrolls. When the two ladders imply different labor-market stories, the rate book is the one carrying conviction.
  • Claims as the weekly steer. Initial jobless claims print every Thursday; a sustained move through the consensus bucket usually drags the monthly payrolls ladder within a session.
  • Fed linkage. The unemployment-ceiling Cumulative is the bridge to the rate path: a break above the consensus bucket feeds straight into the cut-count books on the FOMC Tracker workspace, where the September meeting now prices a hike as the narrow favorite.