Trump Approval Rating

Trump approval markets are the highest-frequency political contracts on prediction markets. Kalshi lists a weekly Range contract pinned to Friday's pollster reading—this week's print settles July 10, 2026 15:00 UTC.

Polymarket's weekly bucket Categorical and Kalshi's VoteHub up/down binary have not yet relisted for the July 10 week, so the anchor is single-sided on Kalshi this week; the custodian re-pairs them automatically once they reopen.

Backing the weekly print are two year-end Cumulative tails: how high approval gets before 2027, and how low it gets—the medium-term backdrop for every Friday print.

Anchor: Kalshi KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL10. Copy this workspace to your own account to roll it forward week-by-week.

Kalshi's Range on the July 10 Friday approval print is the anchor this week. Polymarket's weekly bucket Categorical and Kalshi's VoteHub direction binary have not yet reopened for this week—when they do, they re-pair onto this row for the two-exchange read.

Cumulative chains on how high and how low Trump's approval gets before 2027. These are the medium-term backdrop for every weekly print.

• Kalshi Range over the Friday print. Kalshi prices a Range bucket over the July 10 approval reading from RealClearPolling. The bucket the book centers on is its read on where the pollster average lands Friday.
• Cross-exchange read returns when Polymarket relists. Polymarket's weekly Categorical prices the same Friday print as buckets; the pollster underlyings differ, so a small cross-exchange spread is normal once both are live again.
• Year-end tails. The Cumulative chains on "approval below X" and "approval above Y" through Dec 31, 2026 reprice each Friday as the weekly print lands—the medium-term backdrop to every weekly move.