Trump Approval Rating

Trump approval markets are the highest-frequency political contracts on prediction markets. Kalshi lists a weekly Range contract pinned to Friday's pollster reading—the July 31 print has settled and the anchor now rolls to the week ending August 7, 2026 15:00 UTC.

Kalshi's VoteHub binary pairs with it for the 7/31–8/7 week, so the anchor row is two-sided: the Range prices where the average lands, the VoteHub single prices whether it holds above a 38.1% strike (the strike stepped down from 39.5% as the book re-centered). Polymarket still has no live weekly bucket Categorical; the custodian re-pairs one automatically if it reopens.

Backing the weekly print are two year-end Cumulative tails—how high approval gets before 2027 and how low it gets—the medium-term backdrop for every Friday print.

Anchor: Kalshi KXAPRPOTUS-26AUG07. Copy this workspace to your own account to roll it forward week-by-week.

Kalshi's Range on the August 7 Friday approval print is the anchor this week, paired with the VoteHub single on whether the average holds above 38.1%. Polymarket's weekly bucket Categorical has not reopened; when it does it re-pairs onto this row for the two-exchange read.

Cumulative chains on how high and how low Trump's approval gets before 2027. These are the medium-term backdrop for every weekly print.

• Kalshi Range over the Friday print. Kalshi prices a Range bucket over the August 7 approval reading from RealClearPolling. The bucket the book centers on is its read on where the pollster average lands Friday.
• VoteHub single as the level read. KXTRUMPVH-26AUG07 settles on VoteHub's average at 10:00 AM ET August 7 against a 38.1% strike. The Range and the single use different pollster underlyings, so a modest spread between "where the bucket sits" and "above 38.1%" is structural, not a mispricing.
• Year-end tails. The Cumulative chains on "approval below X" and "approval above Y" through Dec 31, 2026 reprice each Friday as the weekly print lands—the medium-term backdrop to every weekly move.