Trump Approval Rating

Trump approval rating—the weekly market

Trump approval markets are the highest-frequency political contracts on prediction markets. Kalshi lists a weekly Range contract pinned to Friday's pollster reading; Polymarket lists a Categorical bucket Range on the same Friday print. Both settle off independent pollster underlyings, so a modest cross-exchange spread is the norm—reading that spread is half the point.

This week's print: Friday, May 29, 2026 (10am ET resolution).
Kalshi settlement source: RealClearPolling.
Polymarket settlement source: Independent pollster basket.

Below the weekly print, the workspace zooms out to year-end cumulative chains on the high and low approval tails through Dec 31, 2026. Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it rotating each Friday as new weekly events list.

Kalshi's Range and Polymarket's Categorical pie on the same Friday May 29 settlement, plus the Kalshi VoteHub-sourced up/down weekly direction binary.

Cumulative chains on how high and how low Trump's approval gets before 2027. These are the medium-term backdrop for every weekly print.

• Kalshi Range vs. Polymarket Categorical. Kalshi prints a Range over the Friday approval reading from RealClearPolling; Polymarket prices the same Friday print as a bucket Categorical. Pollster underlyings differ so a small cross-exchange spread is normal—the spread is the read on which pollster average traders are leaning toward.
• Kalshi up/down binary. The VoteHub-sourced "will approval increase this week" binary settles May 29 at 10am ET against the May 28 VoteHub time-adjusted average. Compare to the Range pie: if the Range bucket centered above last week's print prices > 50% but the up/down binary doesn't, you have a contradiction worth fading.
• Year-end tails. The Cumulative chains on "approval below X" and "approval above Y" through Dec 31, 2026 reprice each Friday as the weekly print lands. Watch the Friday close on the tails to see how the weekly print is moving the year-end distribution—the slope is the cleanest read on whether approval is structurally drifting.
• Polymarket up/down. Polymarket has historically mirrored Kalshi's up/down binary. The May 29 version isn't listed at run time, so the cross-exchange direction spread is one-sided this week.