Tennessee Governor 2026

Marsha Blackburn is the Republican nominee for governor of Tennessee. She won the August 6 primary, and Kalshi has since delisted both primary books—the Republican nominee event, the Democratic nominee event, and Polymarket's and PredictIt's mirrors of them are all gone from the data feed.

What is left is a general election on November 3 that nothing trades. Blackburn sits at 96% against Jerri Green's 4.2% on Kalshi and 95.6/3.2 on Polymarket, and both books have turned over exactly zero dollars in twenty-four hours.

This workspace is now a study in what a priced but untraded race looks like. Every number on this page is a resting quote:

• The margin ladder gives Republicans 91.5% to win by 9 or more, 78% by 15 or more, 54% by 24 or more, 30.5% by 30 or more. Zero volume across every rung; total open interest across the whole ladder is $192.
• The turnout ladder prices above-1.73M at 55.5% and above-2.1M at 11.5%. Zero volume, $87 of open interest.
• The one book with any tape at all is the settled primary margin ladder—$23, on Blackburn's ≥12% leg.

Tennessee has not elected a Democratic governor since 2002, and the market's disinterest is a reasonable response to that. But an untraded 96% is not the same object as a traded 96%, and the distinction matters when reading any of the pies below.

TN Secretary of State — Elections.

The August 6 primary books have been delisted. Kalshi purges settled series rather than retaining them, and both Tennessee nominee events plus their Polymarket and PredictIt mirrors have gone with them. The four charts that occupied this section are replaced below with the books that survive.

Blackburn's primary margin ladder is the only fragment left: it prices ≥9% at 99.5% and ≥12% at 0.5%, so the market that settled it thinks she won by between nine and twelve points.

The Republican hold, priced on two exchanges that agree and neither of which has traded. Kalshi 96%, Polymarket 95.6%. The four-tenths of a point between them is noise from two stale marks, not a spread anyone could act on.

Open interest tells the same story: $5,583 behind Kalshi's Republican leg, $11,810 behind the Democratic one, and nothing at all on Polymarket.

The general election books themselves. Kalshi's pie carries Blackburn and Green; Polymarket's carries party labels. Manifold's binary on a Democratic win is the third read.

Note that Kalshi's two legs sum to 100.2% and Polymarket's to 98.8%—a two-point spread between the two exchanges' internal consistency, on a market where neither has a trade to anchor it.

The hourly history on the general-election book. It is a flat line, and that is the finding: no repricing since the primary settled eleven days ago.

For contrast, Florida's Republican primary book turned over $4.87M today and South Carolina's runoff $102k. Tennessee's governor race is a safe seat and the tape says so.

• Whether any Tennessee book trades again before November. Zero volume across the general, the margin ladder and the turnout ladder. If a race this lopsided never attracts flow, the resting quotes will drift on nothing, and the 96% will still be there on election day having never been tested.
• The delisting pattern. Kalshi removed both nominee books within days of settlement, as it did with Clacton and the French Open. Any workspace anchored on a primary should expect its anchor to vanish rather than settle in place.
• The margin ladder's $192. Nine rungs, one dollar-figure. It prices Republicans at 78% to win by fifteen or more, which for a state Trump carried by 30 looks low—but with no volume there is nothing to say it is wrong either.
• Jerri Green's 4.2% against $11,810 of open interest. More money is carried on the losing side than the winning one, the same inversion seen in South Carolina and Florida, here at three orders of magnitude less scale.
• Turnout above 1.73M at 55.5%. Tennessee's 2022 gubernatorial turnout was roughly 1.9M. The ladder's central estimate is below the last comparable cycle, which is a real claim about midterm falloff that nobody has taken the other side of.