SpaceX Tracker — Merger, Cadence, IPO Calendar

SpaceX listed in June 2026. The IPO books that anchored this workspace have settled, and what replaced them is more interesting than the debut was: a Kalshi book on Tesla and SpaceX merging that carries more open interest than every SpaceX operating contract combined.

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? prices 3.5% before September 1, 19.5% before January, 52.5% by May 2027, 70% before 2028. Twenty-four-hour volume is $13,286—and $10,289 of it, seventy-seven percent, sits on the two-week 3.5% leg, which carries $218,163 of open interest. Nothing else in this stack is close.

The operating book is quiet and precise. August launch count: above 12 at 95.5%, above 13 at 73.5%, above 14 at 19.5%, above 15 at 4.5%. The market has SpaceX landing on thirteen or fourteen launches this month with three weeks to run.

Starship 14 is the tight one. Before September 1 trades 5.5%, before September 18 trades 82.5%—a seventy-seven point jump across seventeen days. The book expects the flight in the second week of September and almost nowhere else.

Alongside sit the 2026 IPO calendar books, where Anthropic and OpenAI are now the story rather than SpaceX.

SpaceX launches.

The June debut, retained as the record. The valuation ladder and the closing-market-cap distribution both settled; neither has traded since.

They are worth keeping because they are the only complete before-and-after a private-company listing has produced on a prediction market, and the next one—Anthropic or OpenAI—will be read against them.

SpaceX's operating cadence, priced two ways. The August launch-count Cumulative is a narrow distribution: 95.5% for more than twelve, 73.5% for more than thirteen, 19.5% for more than fourteen. The deepest rung by open interest is above 10 at $40,493, a leg trading at 99.5%.

Starship 14 is where the disagreement lives. Before September 1: 5.5%. Before September 18: 82.5%. Before October 1: 94.5%. The market is confident the flight happens and confident it does not happen in the next two weeks, and $6,450 of the book's $6,860 is on the 5.5% leg saying otherwise.

The 2026 Starship-to-space Range book, on $20 of volume, centers on five flights at 50.5%.

Kalshi's Tesla–SpaceX merger ladder is a clean time-distribution: 3.5% before September, 9% before October, 12% before November, 16.5% before December, 19.5% before January, then a steep climb through spring 2027 to 70% before 2028.

The money is nowhere near that curve. Seventy-seven percent of the day's volume is on the before September 1 leg at 3.5%, and that leg carries $218,163 of open interest—more than ten times the next-deepest rung and more than the entire SpaceX launch-count book.

Two legs, before July 1 and before August 1, have already settled No while holding $66,076 and $27,797 of open interest. Someone has been rolling this position forward monthly and losing on it each time, which is the most legible directional bet visible anywhere in this workspace.

The 2026 IPO calendar, where SpaceX has been replaced by the AI labs. Anthropic is the consensus next listing: Kalshi gives it 87% to announce this year, Polymarket 84.5%, and Kalshi's date ladder jumps from 23.5% before October 1 to 68% before November 1—a forty-four point step inside a single month, which is the sharpest date-specific conviction in the stack.

OpenAI disagrees with itself across exchanges: Kalshi 24% to announce, Polymarket 19%, and Polymarket's own market-cap book gives 80.5% to no IPO at all this year, with the entire priced tail concentrated in the 750B–1T bucket at 4.7%.

Shein (94.5% / 96.6%) and Discord (34.5% / 30.2%) round out the agreed names. Jersey Mike's has already settled Yes, and Cerebras settled Yes on Polymarket.

• The $218,163 on a 3.5% merger leg expiring in two weeks. It is the deepest position in this workspace by a factor of five and it is on the least likely outcome on its own ladder. Two prior monthly legs already settled No holding six figures apiece.
• Starship 14's seventy-seven point step. 5.5% before September 1, 82.5% before September 18. A flight slipping past mid-September would break the tightest date distribution on the page.
• Anthropic's forty-four point month. 23.5% before October, 68% before November. Either the market knows something about a filing window or that ladder is mispriced across one boundary.
• Whether the August launch count clears fourteen. 73.5% for more than thirteen, 19.5% for more than fourteen, with three weeks left. The gap between those two rungs is the cleanest operating-cadence trade SpaceX offers.
• OpenAI priced three ways. 24% on Kalshi, 19% on Polymarket, and 80.5% no IPO this year on Polymarket's own market-cap book. The first two are the same claim; the third is its complement and does not reconcile with either.
• What this workspace becomes. The IPO it was built for has happened. If the merger book keeps growing it is a Tesla–SpaceX corporate-action tracker with a SpaceX operating annex, not an IPO tracker—worth revisiting the framing if that persists.