SpaceX IPO Tracker

SpaceX announced its IPO the week of June 11, 2026, and the debut is now well behind us—both the pre-debut "where will it price" ladder and the debut-month closing books have settled. Traders had priced a debut close above $2 trillion (CNBC, June 11); the settled charts below preserve how the cross-strike book read the debut as it happened.

With the listing question resolved, the live book has moved to operating cadence and the next listings. Kalshi runs a monthly launch-count Cumulative on SpaceX—now the August book, after July settled—a Multiple on when the fourteenth Starship flight goes up, and a year-level Range on how many Starship flights reach space in 2026. Around them sits the broader IPO calendar: Polymarket's ipos-before-2027 Multiple, Kalshi's KXIPO-26 on which companies announce an IPO this year, and the Anthropic IPO-timing book.

Polymarket's will-spacexs-valuation-hit-by-june-30 Multiple and the spacex-closing-market-cap-end-of-ipo-month Categorical priced the debut number two ways—a strike chain and a full distribution. Both settled at the end of the debut month; together they are the cross-strike record of where the debut landed.

The live operating book. Kalshi's August launch-count Cumulative is the highest-volume ongoing SpaceX market on the platform—the July book settled August 1—sitting next to the broader IPO calendar: Polymarket's ipos-before-2027 Multiple and Kalshi's KXIPO-26 on which companies officially announce an IPO this year. Anthropic's IPO-announcement timing Multiple is the live frontier-tech listing question.

Starship cadence is the operational leg a public SpaceX trades against. Flight 13 flew, so Kalshi's KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14 Multiple now prices when flight 14 goes up; the KXSTARSHIPSPACE-26 Range prices how many Starship flights reach space across the full year. Beside them, Polymarket's OpenAI closing-market-cap book is the cross-asset backdrop for how the market values the rest of the frontier-tech class.

• Debut record vs. live tape. The two settled June books are the reference for what the market paid for the SpaceX story going in. Everything else on this page is what it is pricing now that the story is public.
• Launch cadence as the fundamental. The monthly launch-count Cumulative is the closest thing to an operating metric available on a prediction market for SpaceX. A month that prints below the modal bucket is the cleanest negative signal on the board. July settled August 1; August is now the live book.
• Starship flight 14 timing. The flight-14 Multiple and the year-level reach-space Range price the same program on two horizons. Backwardation between them—near-term timing slipping while the annual count holds—implies the market expects the cadence to be made up later in the year.
• The IPO calendar is the second story. With SpaceX public, KXIPO-26, ipos-before-2027, and the Anthropic timing book carry the frontier-tech listing question forward.
• OpenAI as the peer read. The OpenAI closing-market-cap distribution is the closest comparable to what the SpaceX debut books priced, and the best available check on whether the debut re-rated the whole class.