Next SCOTUS Vacancy

Next SCOTUS vacancy — market view of a long-dated question

Supreme Court vacancy markets are long-dated and news-reactive: they stay evergreen but spike on any justice's health or retirement news. Kalshi lists the "next Supreme Court justice" Categorical — the candidate field for whoever fills the next seat. Manifold lists community-forecaster Categoricals on which current justice leaves first and which departure causes the next vacancy. Together they frame both the timing question and the replacement question in one view.

Settlement source: Supreme Court of the United States.

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Replacement field

Kalshi's Categorical on who the next Supreme Court justice is — the market's best read on the Administration's shortlist.

Who leaves next

Manifold's community forecasts on which current justice is first out and whose departure causes the vacancy.

What to watch

• Kalshi candidate Categorical. The KXSCOURT-29 field reprices instantly on any retirement rumor. The top-5 share distribution is the market's best guess at the Administration's shortlist.
• Manifold justice-departure Categorical. Community forecasters price which sitting justice leaves the bench first. Trades thinly, but useful as a prior.
• Manifold vacancy-cause Categorical. A related Categorical on whose departure causes the next vacant seat — aligns closely with the sibling departure market.
• News sensitivity. Any health or retirement story about a sitting justice will move these contracts within minutes. The history chart below captures the re-pricings.
• No countdown widget on this workspace. This is explicitly an open-ended market without a settlement date — the workspace is a watchlist, not a countdown.