Russian Duma Election 2026

Russia holds State Duma elections on September 20, 2026—the first national vote since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a managed-democracy stress test for United Russia's grip on the legislature. Polymarket runs the only real-money book on the outcome, with five linked events: which party gains the most seats (the anchor and deepest book), the official winner, second and third place, and reported turnout.

Anchor: Polymarket—Which party will gain the most seats? settles September 20, 2026. Copy this workspace to your own account to keep tracking through election day.

Beyond the headline result, the structural sub-events fill out the picture: who finishes second and third behind United Russia's expected plurality, and what turnout the official count reports—the figure observers treat as the regime's legitimacy print.

• The spread between "most seats" and "winner." The two events should track each other almost exactly; sustained divergence means traders are pricing a technical difference in resolution criteria—worth reading both rule sets before taking either side.
• Second place as the real contest. With United Russia's plurality near-certain, the tradeable question is whether the Communist Party holds the runner-up slot or LDPR overtakes it—the line analysts read for managed-opposition calibration.
• Turnout as the legitimacy print. Wartime mobilization, annexed-territory voting, and electronic ballots all push reported turnout up; the turnout buckets price how far the official figure stretches.
• Thin books move fast. This is a single-provider market with modest depth—headline-driven repricing can gap, so the history chart above is the better read on trend than any single print.