Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Tracker

Russia and Ukraine remain without a signed peace agreement. Polymarket settled its earlier ceasefire ladder (May 31, June 30, end-of-2026) when a brief ceasefire began on May 6, 2026, and the active books have since shifted to the peace deal framing—same underlying story, different settlement primitive: "ceasefire" markets resolved on the May 6 declaration; "peace deal" markets settle on a formal agreement.

The June 30, 2026 peace-deal window passed without a signed agreement. The end-of-2026 peace-deal Single is now the live near-term anchor, and the deepest book on the board is no longer the peace deal itself but the territorial-recognition question—whether the United States formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory before 2027. That market trades several multiples of the peace-deal Single's volume, which is itself a read: participants are pricing the shape of a settlement more actively than its signature.

Beneath the headline, the leadership books—Putin's tenure and Zelenskyy's tenure through year-end—are the political-risk legs that constrain how any agreement gets reached.

The June 30 peace-deal window passed unresolved. The live near-term legs are now Polymarket's US-recognizes-Russian-sovereignty Single—the deepest Ukraine book on the platform—paired with Manifold's ceasefire-agreement mirror. Same conflict, two very different settlement primitives: formal territorial recognition vs. a bilateral ceasefire agreement.

Polymarket's end-of-2026 peace-deal Single is the primary live horizon, tracking whether a formal agreement is reached and holds through year-end. Beside it, the Zelenskyy-tenure Single prices whether Ukraine's negotiating counterparty is still in office when that horizon arrives—a precondition question the peace-deal price does not isolate on its own.

Where Zelenskyy and Putin meet next (Categorical) and Putin's tenure through December 31, 2026—the diplomatic venue and leadership markers underneath the peace-deal pricing. A named meeting venue repricing upward has historically led the peace-deal Single rather than followed it.

Manifold's bucket-Range on ceasefire timing. Lower-volume, less liquid, but a useful sanity check on the Polymarket consensus across multiple horizons.

Reading the term-structure. The live Polymarket stack now spans three distinct settlement primitives on one conflict: a formal peace deal by end-of-2026, US recognition of Russian sovereignty by end-of-2026, and a Manifold ceasefire agreement. These are not substitutes—recognition can precede a deal, a deal can be signed without recognition, and a ceasefire can hold without either. Reading them as a set is more informative than reading any one.

• Recognition is the deep book. The US-recognizes-sovereignty Single carries roughly seven times the 24-hour volume of the peace-deal Single. When the deepest market on a conflict prices the terms rather than the agreement, participants are treating the outcome shape as the live question.
• The June 30 window closed empty. No formal agreement by the mid-year checkpoint. The end-of-2026 Single is the surviving horizon; its level is the cleanest single read on whether this year ends with a signed deal.
• Leadership as a precondition. Putin's December 31 rung and Zelenskyy's end-of-2026 Single sit side by side. A sharp move in either reprices every peace-deal horizon above it, because both counterparties have to be in office for a bilateral agreement to be signed.
• Cross-exchange sanity check. Manifold's ceasefire timeline is thin and play-money, but persistent divergence from the Polymarket consensus is worth a second look before treating the Polymarket level as settled.