Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Tracker

The peace path has kept deflating. Polymarket's Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 prices 14%, down from about 19% a month ago, on $5,201 of twenty-four-hour volume.

And the cross-exchange comparison does not hold up. Manifold's ceasefire timeline prices a ceasefire before 2027 at 15.4%. A ceasefire is a strictly weaker condition than a signed peace agreement—every world where a treaty is signed contains a ceasefire, and plenty of ceasefires happen without a treaty. The two books price them within 1.4 points of each other. One of them is wrong and there is no mechanism on the board to find out which.

The tenure books carry the depth now, and Zelenskyy carries most of it. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026 trades $44,357 a day at 7%—eight and a half times the peace-deal book's volume. Putin out by December 31 trades $13,843 at the same 7%, inside a Multiple that turns over $32,487 against $9,024,132 of open interest. Two leaders, identical probabilities, and the Ukrainian one is the more actively traded.

The meeting book is the cleanest example of the pattern that runs through this whole catalog. No meeting before 2027 prices 93% and took $2,067. The eight venue legs—Hungary, Italy/Vatican, India, Russia, Qatar/UAE, US, Turkey—are priced between 0.2% and 1.1% and took $10,326 between them. Eighty-three percent of the book's volume sits on outcomes it collectively prices under four percent.

Below: the near-term legs, the medium-term path, the tenure and territorial books, and Manifold's timeline.

The peace deal at 14% is the anchor, and it is the thinnest deep-book on this page at $5,201 a day. Against it, Putin out by December 31 at 7% on $13,843—the most-traded rung of a Multiple whose August 31 leg, nine days out, priced at 0.6% and still took $11,647.

Note the shape of the Putin ladder: July 31 already resolved No; August 31 prices 0.6%, September 30 1.7%, December 31 7%, June 2027 12%. Monotone and steep in the near term, which is what a tenure book on an incumbent with no succession mechanism should look like.

Zelenskyy out by end of 2026 prices 7%—the same number as Putin, on three times the volume. Whatever is driving that flow, it is not a view about the war ending, because the treaty book is 14% and falling.

US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory prices 5% on $233 a day. It is the most consequential proposition in this workspace and effectively nobody trades it.

And the mirror image—Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory—prices 5% by December 31 and 12% by June 2027, on $6,004 a day against $1,232,184 of open interest. Its June 30, 2026 rung already resolved No. Symmetric five-percents in both directions: the market prices neither side changing the map.

Polymarket prices no Putin–Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 93%. The other eight legs name a venue.

Sorted by volume: Hungary $3,664 at 0.2%, Italy/Vatican $2,854 at 0.2%, India $1,685 at 0.2%, Russia $1,142 at 0.3%, Qatar/UAE $275, US $251, Turkey $184. The 93% leg took $2,067. So $10,326 of the book's $12,393—eighty-three percent—traded on legs the same book prices under four percent in total.

There is a benign reading: venue legs are cheap lottery tickets and a summit announcement would move them a hundredfold, so small dollars buy large convexity. There is also the reading that a book with $12,393 of volume and a 93% modal outcome is not being priced by anyone at all. Both are probably true.

Manifold's Multiple prices when rather than whether: before 2027 at 15.4%, before July 2027 at 39.6%, before 2028 at 54.8%, before July 2028 at 70.9%. Four rungs—January 2025, July 2025, January 2026, July 2026—have already resolved No.

The slope is the interesting part. It takes until early 2028 for a ceasefire to be a coin flip, and the book still gives 29% odds that there is none by mid-2028. Set against Polymarket's 14% treaty-by-2027, the two exchanges agree on the near term and Manifold is the only one pricing the long tail at all.

• A ceasefire and a treaty cannot cost the same. Manifold 15.4% for a ceasefire before 2027, Polymarket 14% for a signed peace deal. The first strictly contains the second. Either Manifold's ceasefire is badly underpriced or Polymarket's treaty is badly overpriced, and the gap has no arbitrage path because the two definitions live on different venues in different currencies.
• Zelenskyy trades three times Putin at the same price. $44,357 against $13,843, both at 7%. On a war-outcome page that is the single most surprising number: the tenure of the leader who is not under sanction, not facing a succession vacuum, and standing for re-election is the deepest contract here.
• The 83% on venue legs. Hungary, Italy/Vatican and India each took more volume than the 93% no meeting leg. If a summit is announced, those legs are the fastest-moving contracts on the board; until then they are the clearest instance of this catalog's recurring shape—deepest flow on the least likely rung.
• $9.0M of open interest on the Putin ladder. Against $32,487 of daily volume—a two-hundred-and-seventy-to-one ratio. This is a carried hedge, not an opinion, and it will not reprice on news the way a traded book does.
• The symmetric five percents. US recognition of Russian sovereignty at 5%; Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory at 5%. The market prices the map as frozen in both directions, with $1.2M of open interest behind the Ukrainian side and $233 a day of volume behind the American one.
• Deflation without a catalyst. The treaty book has gone from roughly 19% to 14% over a month with no identifiable news beat. Compare the Iran stack, where the nuclear-deal odds fell from 35% to 11% over the same window. Two unrelated conflict complexes both marking down the probability of a negotiated end, quietly, on falling volume.
• What would break the tie. A single announced meeting date resolves the diplomacy book, reprices the venue legs, and gives both the treaty and ceasefire books their first real information since spring. Nothing else on this page moves first.