Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Tracker

Russia–Ukraine peace—where the book is right now

Polymarket settled its earlier ceasefire ladder (May 31, June 30, end-of-2026) when a brief ceasefire began on May 6, 2026. The active books have shifted to the peace deal framing—same underlying story, different settlement primitive: "ceasefire" markets resolved on the May 6 declaration; "peace deal" markets settle on a formal agreement. This workspace tracks the live peace-deal term-structure on Polymarket (June 30, end-of-2026), Manifold's longer-running ceasefire-by-August Single, and the diplomacy and leadership context that's been driving the book—Trump–Putin meeting locations, Russia–Ukraine diplomatic meeting timing, and Putin's tenure.

Settlement source: Polymarket peace-deal market resolution — formal agreement signed by both governments.

The cross-exchange story is now Polymarket peace-deal Singles vs. Manifold ceasefire Single (the lower-volume but still useful cross-exchange sanity check). Kalshi does not list a directly comparable Russia–Ukraine peace-deal Single at this writing. Markets reprice fastest on Trump–Putin and Trump–Zelensky meeting headlines, US–EU sanctions movement, and battlefield/territorial-control developments.

Polymarket's June 30 peace-deal Single is the active near-term anchor; Manifold's August 1 ceasefire Single is the cross-exchange mirror. Same story, two settlement primitives—peace-deal vs. ceasefire.

End-of-2026 peace deal Single and the diplomatic-meeting-timing Multiple—the medium-term path beyond the June 30 anchor.

Where Trump and Putin meet next (Categorical) and whether Putin remains president by June 30—the diplomatic and leadership markers underneath the ceasefire pricing.

Manifold's bucket-Range on ceasefire timing. Lower-volume, less liquid, but a useful sanity check on the Polymarket consensus across multiple horizons.

Reading the term-structure. The two peace-deal Singles (June 30, end-of-2026) form a Polymarket-internal probability term-structure on "how long until a formal peace agreement holds." Cleanly increasing prices across the two horizons are the consistent shape; backwardation (later-dated cheaper than earlier-dated) is a strong signal the market is pricing rapid de-escalation rather than entrenchment.

Peace-deal vs. ceasefire framing. The May 6 ceasefire settled the prior ladder of "ceasefire" markets early; the active ladder has moved to "peace deal" framing. A peace deal is a higher bar than a ceasefire—formal agreement signed by both governments. Manifold's August 1 ceasefire Single is the cleanest live cross-exchange book on the lower-bar question, useful for spread analysis.

Diplomacy and leadership read. The Trump–Putin meeting-location Categorical and the Russia–Ukraine diplomatic-meeting-timing Multiple are the leading signals on whether progress is structural or performative. Sharp moves on "meeting confirmed by" rungs typically precede the headline-cycle re-pricing of the peace-deal Singles by 24–48 hours.

Putin tenure binary. The Polymarket "Putin out as President of Russia by June 30" Single is the leadership-disruption tail. Low-probability priced (single digits typically), but the asymmetric risk transfer is what makes it part of the workspace—the peace-deal book reprices instantly on any credible Putin-out headline.

News drivers to watch. Trump–Putin and Trump–Zelensky meeting headlines, US–EU sanctions movements, battlefield/territorial-control changes, Russian elite-level political shifts, and any concrete movement on a US-mediated framework agreement.