Powell at the Fed

Kevin Warsh is the confirmed next Fed chair and Jerome Powell's term leading the Fed has run its course. The live question is no longer whether Powell runs the Fed but how long he stays on as a board governor—his board seat does not expire until January 31, 2028—and whether the Trump administration moves to push him off the board before then. This workspace stacks the cross-exchange books on Powell's board exit next to the Trump firing-attempt markets.

Powell's board term ends: January 31, 2028.
Departure book: Polymarket — Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Firing-attempt books: Polymarket and Kalshi KXTRYFIREPOWELL.

Polymarket's year-end book and Kalshi's month-by-month KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV ladder both price when—if at all—Powell leaves the Fed board before his term runs out. Kalshi's finer monthly buckets resolve the near-term path; Polymarket's lower-resolution book is the cleaner read on the year-end question. Watch the spread between the two—that is where the cross-exchange microstructure story lives.

Whether the Trump administration tries to remove Powell as a Fed board member before his term ends—Kalshi's KXTRYFIREPOWELL ladder and Polymarket's by-date book are the two sides of the political-risk leg. These contracts track rhetoric and procedural posture, not legal mechanics: Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act limits removal to "for cause," which has no modern precedent.

• The departure ladders should price as a CDF. Kalshi's monthly KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV buckets are a step function; Polymarket's year-end book is the same question at lower resolution. If the implied cumulative probabilities diverge, that gap is the cross-exchange inefficiency to watch.
• The firing-attempt contracts are politically priced, not legally priced. Trump's public posture toward Powell moves these markets far more than any concrete procedural step—removal "for cause" under the Federal Reserve Act has no modern precedent, so a low print is the base case absent a genuine escalation.
• With Warsh confirmed, Powell's board exit is a question of grace. Does he serve the seat out to January 2028 or step down early now that he no longer chairs the Fed? The Polymarket history above is the cleanest read on which way sentiment is drifting.