Nobel Peace Prize 2026

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the Peace Prize in Oslo in early October—Kalshi's literature book settles October 9 and Polymarket's peace book settles October 10. Both exchanges list Categorical winner markets, and with eight weeks to run they have stopped agreeing about almost everything.

The two books name different frontrunners, and different kinds of frontrunner. Polymarket's top three are people: Yulia Navalnaya at 9%, Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 5.9%, UNRWA at 4%. Kalshi's top three are organizations: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 24%, Save the Children at 12%, Doctors Without Borders at 10%. There is essentially no overlap in ordering between the two books.

Donald Trump is no longer the favorite anywhere—but he is still the whole book. He prices at 3.2% on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi, fifth and eighth in their respective fields. And he carries $12,093 of Polymarket's $19,743 in 24-hour volume: 61% of all trading in the market sits on a contract the market gives a one-in-thirty chance. That divergence, not the price, is what this workspace is now tracking.

Polymarket's book runs about $19.7k a day; Kalshi's runs $31. The earlier framing of these as comparable venues no longer holds—Kalshi's peace book has gone effectively dormant, which is why its prices sit so far from Polymarket's. Read the Kalshi pie as a stale snapshot of a different consensus rather than as a live cross-exchange check. The interesting thing is that a dormant book and an active one have arrived at completely different shortlists: institutions on one, individuals on the other.

The volume leader against the price leader, across two exchanges. Trump at 3.2% on Polymarket carries 61% of the book's flow. Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 24% on Kalshi carries $28 of a $31 book. Both are the most-traded contract in their venue; neither venue's most-traded contract is its favorite by any margin that would matter.

Below them, Navalnaya on both books—9% on Polymarket against 7% on Kalshi, the one name where the two exchanges roughly agree. If there is a cross-exchange consensus in this market at all, it is her.

Two adjacent Nobel books listed on Kalshi. Literature settles October 9 on $103 a day; Economics settles October 13 on $86. Both are thin enough to be curiosities rather than prices, but they extend the workspace from one announcement to Nobel week and are the only markets anywhere on the supported exchanges that price the non-Peace prizes.

• Trump is a volume contract, not a price contract. 61% of Polymarket's flow on a 3.2% leg. This has been true all cycle and the price has kept falling anyway—it was 4% at the last refresh and the book has been shrinking around it. The contract is the most-traded opinion market in the year's cultural conversation; it is not a forecast.
• The two books disagree about the category of laureate. Kalshi has three humanitarian organizations at the top; Polymarket has three individuals. Historically the committee alternates, so this is a real fork rather than noise—but Kalshi's $31 book has no business being read as a forecast.
• Navalnaya is the only cross-exchange agreement. 9% Polymarket, 7% Kalshi. Every other name is ordered differently between the two.
• Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 24% is the single most confident price in either book. The ERRs are the mutual-aid networks operating through the Sudanese civil war; the committee has awarded conflict-zone humanitarian networks before.
• Kalshi's book has gone dormant. $31 in 24 hours across twenty-plus contracts. It will reprice violently and late if it reprices at all—expect a step change in early October rather than drift.
• Speculation peaks in the final week. Volume historically concentrates in the two sessions before the announcement. The Polymarket history line below is where that run-up shows first.
• The announcement is a one-second event. Both books settle within minutes of the committee chair naming the laureate. There is no partial-information phase.