Next Prime Minister of Israel

Israel holds its next legislative election on October 27, 2026, and the prediction markets are already pricing the successor field. This workspace tracks who the cross-exchange book expects to be sworn in as Prime Minister after that vote.

The anchor is Polymarket's candidate Categorical, paired with Kalshi's mirror of the same question—two independent books on a 17-name field, so the cross-exchange spread on any single candidate is part of the read. Below the anchor, the workspace spotlights the incumbent line, charts the timing market on when Netanyahu's current run ends, and tracks the settlement trajectory into the election.

Election date: October 27, 2026 (Knesset legislative election).
Market resolution: the individual formally sworn in as Prime Minister after the election; an early election resolves it sooner.

No signup is required to view or share this workspace. Copy it to your own account to keep it tracking as the field narrows.

Polymarket and Kalshi both list the post-election Prime Minister as a multi-candidate Categorical. Full distributions side by side—every candidate's implied probability, and the cross-exchange spread on each name.

Netanyahu, the incumbent, sits at the front of the field on both books. The Polymarket and Kalshi spot markets on his return are the cleanest single read—and the spot price is where any cross-exchange disagreement on the incumbent shows up first.

The successor field only matters once the incumbent is gone. Polymarket's Netanyahu out by...? Multiple prices the timing of that exit as a date ladder—each bucket is the probability he is out by that date. Read it against the successor pie above: a market pricing an early exit but no clear successor is the configuration that moves fastest on coalition news.

• Cross-exchange spread on the front-runner. Polymarket and Kalshi settle the same question off different liquidity, so a gap on Netanyahu's return is normal—when it widens past a few points, the cheaper side is usually the edge.
• Successor pie shape. A field where one challenger consolidates the anti-incumbent vote prices very differently from a fragmented opposition; watch whether the second and third slices converge or stay scattered.
• Exit timing vs. successor odds. The Netanyahu out by...? ladder and the successor Categorical should move together—an early-exit ladder paired with a flat successor pie is the market pricing instability without a resolution.
• Election-date risk. October 27, 2026 is the scheduled vote, but Israeli governments can fall early; any coalition-collapse news pulls the whole stack forward, and the history chart is the cleanest read on when that repricing landed.