NBA Player Movement 2026

Kalshi's next-team books settle October 21, two months out, and the money in them is not where the prices are.

Steph Curry's book prices him 96% to stay in Golden State—and that leg holds $798,911 of open interest against $2.32 million spread across five destination legs priced at 1–2%: Boston $666,213, San Antonio $497,363, Miami $477,092, Charlotte $413,876, Philadelphia $263,037. Nearly three times as much capital is positioned for a move the book says is a one-in-twenty-five event. On the day, Boston at 1% took $13,909 against the stay leg's $18,017.

Bronny James is the sharper case. The Lakers leg at 86% took $8,029. Philadelphia at 11% took $8,370—more than the favorite. A 76-point price gap and the underdog wins the volume.

Two of the seven books on this page are effectively dead. Kevin Durant's turned $5 in twenty-four hours and Kyrie Irving's turned $28, both across thirty legs. They are listed, priced and untraded—useful as a reminder that a quoted price is not the same thing as a market.

The books that do trade carry heavy overrounds: DeRozan's sums to 148%, Irving's to 129%, Bronny's to 128%.

The two books with real flow. Curry's thirty legs sum to 126%; Bronny's thirty-one sum to 128%. Both are dominated by a single high-probability outcome that the day's trading ignored.

Curry's status quo against the deepest of his destination legs. 96% and $798,911 of open interest on one side; 1% and $666,213 on the other. The two largest positions in the book are eighty-five points apart in price and within 17% of each other in size.

Bronny's two legs, and the day's clearest inversion. Los Angeles at 86% took $8,029. Philadelphia at 11% took $8,370. The market's 11% outcome outtraded its 86% outcome.

Two books where the market has actually taken a view. Kawhi Leonard is 82% to Toronto, on $205,503 of open interest and $2,987 of daily flow—the most decisive call on this page. DeRozan's book sums to 148% and puts Denver at 57%, Washington at 25% and Miami at 19%, which cannot all be true at once; divide through before reading any of them.

Three books that are listed but not trading. Durant turned $5 today on a leg that says 92% he stays in Houston. Irving turned $28. Peyton Watson's book prices Cleveland at 98% on $478 of flow. Quoted, not traded. Separately, Aaron Rodgers's NFL book turned $4,337 and put 67% of it on Retires / No Team at 4%.

• Curry's open interest is the number to watch, not his price. $2.32M positioned across five 1–2% destinations against $798,911 on the 96% status quo. If any of those legs starts moving on news, the repricing will be violent because the stay leg has almost no room above 96%.
• Bronny's 11% Philadelphia leg outtrading the 86% Lakers leg is the kind of thing that precedes a price move or reveals a stale quote. Two months to settlement is long enough for either.
• Durant at $5 a day and Irving at $28 should not be read at all. Thirty priced legs and no trading means these quotes are market-maker inventory, not consensus.
• Every book on this page settles October 21 except Rodgers, which settles December 1. Two months is a long runway for a league whose transactions cluster in the days before camp.
• Overrounds run 126–148% across these books. On a thirty-team ladder that is thirty to forty-eight points spread across the tail, which is exactly where all the volume is going. Some of the "longshot flow" on this page is people paying the vig, not expressing a view.