2026 NBA Champion—New York Knicks

The 2026 NBA Finals are settled: the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs to take the title, and Jalen Brunson was named Finals MVP. Oklahoma City carried both books as the season-long favorite but fell in the conference round, leaving a two-team championship that the cross-exchange Categorical ultimately resolved to New York.

This workspace is the cross-exchange record of how Kalshi and Polymarket priced the title—the resolved championship distributions, the finalist markets, and the Finals MVP book, side by side. It was the highest-volume domestic sports market on prediction markets through the Finals run.

Polymarket and Kalshi both listed the 2026 NBA champion as a 30-team Categorical. The resolved distributions are shown side by side—New York settled to Yes, every other team to No.

The Finals came down to the Knicks and Spurs. The direct markets on each finalist are the cleanest record of how the series priced—New York's markets resolved Yes across both exchanges, San Antonio's No. The cross-exchange spread on each team is paired below.

Finals MVP resolved to Jalen Brunson. Both Kalshi and Polymarket ran a Categorical on the award; the final distributions are paired below, with Kalshi the deeper book by volume.

• Cross-exchange spread on each finalist. Through the series, when Polymarket and Kalshi disagreed on the same team by more than two points, the cheaper side was usually the edge—Kalshi's structured pricing tended to lag Polymarket on single-game news.
• Game-by-game repricing. A two-team championship book behaves like a series-price market—each game flipped a large slice of probability, and the daily history above traces that path into the New York resolution.
• Favorite collapse. Oklahoma City's pre-Finals lead unwinding into a Knicks title shows how far a Categorical can move once the bracket resolves.