Middle East Escalation Tracker

Middle East escalation — the live probability stack

Geopolitical prediction markets are the highest-sensitivity real-time contracts in the catalog. Polymarket lists a deep stack of dated binaries and Multiples on the US-Iran story—permanent peace, leadership change, the next diplomatic-meeting venue, Iran's airspace status, and the uranium-handover question—and Kalshi mirrors the headline US-Iran nuclear-agreement Multiple. This workspace pulls them all into a single view so the cross-exchange spread and the term structure of escalation expectations are both visible at a glance.

Polymarket anchor: US x Iran permanent peace deal by…? — Multiple, settles 2026-12-31.
Kalshi mirror: KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 — Multiple, settles 2027-01-01.
Sources: Reuters Middle East · The National.

Conflict and peace — dated binaries plus the next-meeting Categorical

The Polymarket dated-binary stack on permanent-peace, leadership-change, the next diplomatic-meeting Categorical pie, and the uranium-handover Multiple, paired with Kalshi's US-Iran nuclear-deal contract.

Escalation singles — regime fall and Iran airspace status

Binary spotlights on two near-term escalation outcomes: the May 31 regime-fall Single, and Polymarket's dated-Multiple on whether Iran formally closes its airspace—the latter is the cleanest tradable proxy for active-conflict posture.

• Peace-deal vs. leadership-change timelines. The permanent-peace Multiple and the leadership-change-by-date Multiple price two ends of the same spectrum—negotiated settlement on one side, regime fall on the other. Watch the relative shapes of both.
• Iran airspace closure as the cleanest escalation signal. Civil-aviation NOTAMs are the most-watched real-time signal of active-conflict posture; Polymarket's dated Multiple on this is the contract most reactive to news.
• The next US-Iran meeting Categorical. A high-volume venue Categorical that re-prices on every diplomatic-cycle headline—watch which venue the book converges on as a tell on which side is hosting.
• Cross-exchange spread on US-Iran nuclear-agreement. Polymarket's Single Yes/No on a deal-by-2027 vs. Kalshi's Multiple on the same question diverge often—Kalshi's deeper buckets pick up more middle-of-the-distribution probability than the binary captures.