Middle East Escalation Tracker

The Iran escalation book is one of the deepest geopolitical stacks on prediction markets, and the June 30 concession deadlines have now passed without a deal—those dated singles have settled and the live probability has migrated to the before-2027 horizon.

Two Polymarket singles carry almost all of the volume: will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 (~$673k/24h, the deepest book in this workspace) and will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 (~$248k/24h), with a thin Manifold mirror on the same regime question for the cross-exchange read.

Behind the headline singles sit the concession ladders—uranium surrender, US custody of the stockpile, leadership change, and Kalshi's US-Iran nuclear deal Multiple—plus the Strait of Hormuz weekly traffic Cumulative, the one market here that prices the physical consequence rather than the political one.

Anchor: Polymarket will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027.

The concession ladder—what Iran gives up, and by when. These Multiples price the intermediate steps between the status quo and the headline outcomes above, and they move first when negotiations produce anything concrete.

The two deepest books in the stack, both on the before-2027 horizon: US military intervention and Iranian regime survival. These are where the escalation premium actually sits now that the dated June deadlines have settled.

Cross-exchange and physical-consequence legs: Manifold's regime-fall mirror against the Polymarket book, then Kalshi's two Strait of Hormuz markets—the weekly transit Cumulative for the current week, and the much deeper when does traffic return to normal Multiple, which at roughly $285k in 24-hour volume is the largest Hormuz book on the board and prices the disruption as a duration rather than a weekly count.

• The dated deadlines have settled. The June 30 enrichment-halt and regime-fall singles resolved No and are out of the stack; anything still quoting a June date elsewhere is stale. The live horizon is before-2027 across the board.
• Invasion vs. regime fall. These two singles are correlated but not the same trade. A widening gap between them prices a scenario where the regime falls without direct US military action—internal collapse rather than externally forced.
• The concession ladder is the early tell. Uranium surrender and US-custody Multiples reprice on negotiation headlines days before the headline singles move. Watch the near-date buckets on those ladders.
• Hormuz normalization is the deepest physical read. The weekly transit Cumulative measures this week's throughput; the normalization Multiple prices when it ends. That book puts return-to-normal before January 2027 at roughly 54% and before July 2027 at 67%—a slow, grinding recovery rather than a snap-back.
• Cross-exchange depth is asymmetric. Polymarket carries nearly all the political volume; Manifold's regime mirror is thin (~$2k) and Kalshi's contribution is the nuclear-deal Multiple and the Hormuz books. Treat the Manifold line as directional color, not a real spread.