Middle East Escalation Tracker

Middle East escalation—the live probability stack

Geopolitical prediction markets are the highest-sensitivity real-time contracts in the catalog. The headline anchors that long framed this stack—the Iran ceasefire-continuation Multiple and the US x Iran permanent peace deal Multiple—have settled and rotated out, and the June 30 enrichment-halt window has now passed. The live read has shifted to the durable Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? Multiple—the highest-volume Iran contract trading today—alongside the dated uranium-surrender ladder and the Multiples on leadership change and the regime-fall single. This workspace pulls them into a single view so the cross-exchange spread and the term structure of escalation expectations are both visible at a glance.

Live durable read: the Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? Multiple prices whether a formal US-Iran agreement lands, settling into 2027; the Polymarket uranium-surrender ladder tracks the near-term concession term structure.

A dated ladder frames the near-term concession question: the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…? Multiple prices whether Tehran hands over its stockpile inside successive dated windows—the term structure of the concession-or-delay question. The earlier agreement/ceasefire-extension and signed-agreement ladders have settled and rotated out; the live nuclear read now sits in the Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? Multiple below.

These contracts price two ends of the diplomatic spectrum—the enrichment-halt concession window (now passed) and the Kalshi US-Iran nuclear-deal Multiple as the live nuclear read, versus leadership change by year-end—next to the active singles on regime fall and uranium handover.

Binary spotlight on the cleanest near-term escalation outcome: the will the Iranian regime fall single, the most news-reactive binary in the stack—its June 30 window has passed and it reprices fastest on overnight headlines. (The dated airspace-closure single settled and has been dropped from the stack.)

• The nuclear-deal Multiple as the live durable read. With the June 30 enrichment-halt window passed, the Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal? Multiple is the highest-volume live Iran contract in the stack; its repricing is the cleanest read on whether the book sees a formal agreement landing through 2026.
• Concession vs leadership-change timelines. The uranium-surrender and leadership-change Multiples price two ends of the same spectrum—negotiated handover vs regime fall. Watch the relative shapes of the two ladders.
• Regime-fall single as the cleanest escalation tell. The will the Iranian regime fall single is the most news-reactive binary in the stack; it reprices fastest on overnight headlines.
• Diplomatic-meeting venue reprices on every cycle headline. The next-meeting Categorical sits in the second peace-row.