Los Angeles Mayor 2026

LA mayoral race—June 2 first round settled, November ahead

The Los Angeles mayoral primary was held Tuesday June 2, 2026. Incumbent Karen Bass faced a crowded field including 2022 challenger Rick Caruso, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and a long tail of independent and protest candidates. Kalshi and Polymarket each list Categorical winner markets on the eventual mayor; Kalshi adds a separate first-round-winner Categorical (settled to the leader of the June 2 first round) plus Bass and Caruso spotlight markets and a margin-of-victory series.

Settlement: the June 2 first round settled against the Los Angeles County Clerk's certified results. If no candidate cleared 50% on June 2, a November 3, 2026 runoff follows; the headline winner markets settle on the final mayor (post-runoff if needed). Anchors: Kalshi—KXMAYORLA-26 · Polymarket—los-angeles-mayoral-election-117.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through any November runoff.

Kalshi and Polymarket Categorical pies on the same candidate set—the canonical cross-exchange read on the eventual mayor as the June 2 first-round result certifies and the runoff picture (if any) emerges.

Direct prices on the two named contenders. Bass is the incumbent; Caruso is the strongest challenger from the 2022 cycle.

First-round winner (Kalshi—a separate market from the eventual mayor) plus the Manifold cross-exchange mirror.

First round settled; headline live. The June 2 first round has resolved—Kalshi's KXLAMAYOR1R-26 settled to the first-round leader. The Kalshi KXMAYORLA-26 headline and Polymarket main event remain live on the final mayor; if no candidate cleared 50% on June 2, they resolve only after the November runoff.

Bass vs. Caruso, cross-exchange. The two named contenders are the dominant outcomes; Kalshi and Polymarket markets on each candidate are the cleanest single-number reads. A persistent gap between the two venues on Bass typically reflects different views on the LA County turnout model rather than candidate fundamentals.

Runoff vs. clean win. If the first-round Categorical and the headline mayor markets diverge once county returns settle, that's the book signaling a likely runoff. Convergence is the book signaling a 50%-plus first-round win.

Manifold mirror. Manifold's lower-volume mirror tends to lag the Kalshi/Polymarket consensus by 24–48 hours; large divergences usually mean the Manifold market is being moved by a small number of users rather than fresh information.

Margin and 2nd place. The Kalshi margin-of-victory and 2nd-place series are tertiary but useful when the headline market converges—they're the next-question contracts once the winner is functionally priced.