Los Angeles Mayor 2026

LA mayoral election—June 2, 2026

Los Angeles holds its mayoral primary on June 2, 2026. Incumbent Karen Bass faces a crowded field including 2022 challenger Rick Caruso, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and a long tail of independent and protest candidates. Kalshi and Polymarket both list Categorical winner markets across the same candidate set, and Kalshi adds a first-round-winner Categorical (a separate event from the eventual majority winner) plus a margin-of-victory series.

Settlement: Tuesday June 2, 2026 14:00 UTC, against the Los Angeles County Clerk's certified results. Anchors: Kalshi—KXMAYORLA-26 · Polymarket—los-angeles-mayoral-election-117.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through the primary.

Kalshi and Polymarket Categorical pies on the same candidate set—the canonical cross-exchange read on the eventual mayor.

Direct prices on the two named contenders. Bass is the incumbent; Caruso is the strongest challenger from the 2022 cycle.

First-round winner (Kalshi—a separate market from the eventual mayor) plus the Manifold cross-exchange mirror.

Bass vs. Caruso, cross-exchange. The two named contenders are the dominant outcomes; Kalshi and Polymarket markets on each candidate are the cleanest single-number reads. A persistent gap between the two venues on Bass typically reflects different views on the LA County turnout model rather than candidate fundamentals.

First-round vs. final. Kalshi's KXLAMAYOR1R-26 is the first-round winner market—a different event from the eventual mayor. If no candidate clears 50% on June 2, a November runoff is triggered, and the first-round market settles to whoever leads. The headline KXMAYORLA-26 and Polymarket main event settle on the final mayor (post-runoff if needed).

Manifold mirror. Manifold's lower-volume mirror tends to lag the Kalshi/Polymarket consensus by 24–48 hours; large divergences usually mean the Manifold market is being moved by a small number of users rather than fresh information.

Margin and 2nd place. The Kalshi margin-of-victory and 2nd-place series are tertiary but useful when the headline market converges—they're the next-question contracts once the winner is functionally priced.