Los Angeles Mayor 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

The Los Angeles mayoral primary was held Tuesday June 2, 2026. Incumbent Karen Bass faced a crowded field including 2022 challenger Rick Caruso, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and a long tail of independent and protest candidates. Kalshi and Polymarket each list Categorical winner markets on the eventual mayor; Kalshi adds a separate first-round-winner Categorical (settled to the leader of the June 2 first round) plus Bass and Caruso spotlight markets and a margin-of-victory series.

Settlement: the June 2 first round settled against the Los Angeles County Clerk's certified results. If no candidate cleared 50% on June 2, a November 3, 2026 runoff follows; the headline winner markets settle on the final mayor (post-runoff if needed). Anchors: Kalshi—KXMAYORLA-26 · Polymarket—los-angeles-mayoral-election-117.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through any November runoff.

Kalshi and Polymarket Categorical pies on the same candidate set—the canonical cross-exchange read on the eventual mayor as the June 2 first-round result certifies and the runoff picture (if any) emerges.

The June 2 top-two primary sent incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman to the November 3 runoff. Rick Caruso, the strongest challenger of the 2022 cycle, did not advance and his markets have settled No on both exchanges. The two live spot markets below are the direct prices on the only two candidates still in the race.

A two-candidate runoff, now priced as a binary. The June 2 jungle primary resolved to a Bass–Raman November matchup. With Caruso and the rest of the field settled No, the headline Kalshi Categorical and the Polymarket main event have collapsed to a two-way question, and the Bass and Raman spot markets below carry effectively all of the remaining probability mass.

Bass vs. Raman is an incumbency-vs-left-flank read. Bass runs as the incumbent with citywide name recognition; Raman advanced out of a crowded field on the strength of Council District turnout. A persistent cross-exchange gap on Bass usually reflects different LA County turnout models rather than a disagreement about candidate fundamentals.

Election day is November 3, 2026. Expect the books to stay thin through the summer and reprice on the first credible general-election polling in September.