Largest Company Tracker

Which company ends the period on top by market cap? The monthly ladder lives on Manifold—Polymarket has not relisted a monthly, leaving its end-of-December 2026 Categorical as the durable cross-exchange leg and the deepest book in this stack at $13,604 a day.

The two horizons disagree by a wide margin. Manifold prices NVIDIA at 95.5% to finish August on top. Polymarket prices it at 73% to finish December there. Same company, same crown, and a twenty-two-point gap across four months.

The December book fills that gap with two names: Apple at 14% and Alphabet at 12%. Apple is the one carrying flow—$4,904 in a day against NVIDIA's $4,592—so the challenger leg is trading more actively than the leader's. On the August book Apple is a rounding error at 2.5% and Alphabet at 0.9%.

There is also a name in the December book that cannot appear in the August one: SpaceX at 1.1%, on $1,402 a day. A private company priced to become the most valuable in the world inside five months is a small number doing a lot of work.

The near-term ladder next to the year-end book. When the two disagree on the level rather than the leader, as here, the market is pricing a handoff risk that has not started yet—NVIDIA is not being challenged this month, but a quarter of the December book says it will be by then.

Apple and NVIDIA on the December book, priced directly. Apple at 14% took $4,904 against NVIDIA at 73% taking $4,592. Flow parity between a leg at three-quarters and a leg at one-seventh means the marginal trade here is a challenge trade, not a confirmation.

Second and third place carry the rotation signal. The leader is usually stable month to month, so a shift down the ladder is the earlier tell. Right now Apple holds second at 81% and Alphabet third, which is the same ordering the December book uses—the disagreement is purely about how likely the top two swap.

Two ways the question extends. Manifold's end-of-2026 and end-of-2028 books push the horizon out past the Polymarket durable, and the largest-IPO-by-market-cap books are where the private-company leg—SpaceX, Anthropic—gets priced against listed mega-caps directly.

• 95.5% this month, 73% by December. The whole workspace is that gap. Four months of earnings, two Fed meetings and an AI capex cycle sit between them, and the market is pricing roughly a one-in-four chance the crown changes hands in that window.
• Apple's leg trades more than NVIDIA's. $4,904 against $4,592 on the December book. When the challenger out-trades the leader on a 73/14 price, the marginal opinion is bearish on the incumbent even though the level is not.
• SpaceX at 1.1% is a real quote, not a joke. $1,402 of daily flow on a private company becoming the world's most valuable inside five months. It is the only leg here that requires an IPO to resolve, and it links this book directly to the IPO tracker.
• The monthly ladder is play-money and thin. Manifold's August book shows $156 a day. Treat its 95.5% as a community consensus rather than a traded price—the December Polymarket book is the one with real money behind it.
• Second place is where rotation shows first. Apple at 81% to finish August second is the number that has to break before the top slot does. Watch it, not the leader's leg.