Iowa Senate 2026

Iowa is the closest of the Senate races this catalog tracks: Republican Ashley Hinson at 58% against Democrat Josh Turek at 42% on Kalshi, 60/40 on Polymarket. Unlike Georgia and North Carolina, this one is genuinely live.

Kalshi lists it three times and gets three answers. The main Categorical says Hinson 58%. A second Kalshi book, Iowa Senate winner? (Person), says 57%—and prices Turek at 46%, so that book sums to 103%. The Governor–Senate combo implies Hinson at 64% (27% Republican sweep plus 37% Sand-and-Hinson). Six points of spread across three books on the same exchange, same question, same day.

Positioning leans hard to the favorite here, which is the opposite of Georgia and North Carolina. Hinson's leg holds $551,682 of open interest against Turek's $180,116, three to one on the front-runner, while Turek's leg takes nearly twice the daily volume ($13,045 to $7,279).

Below: the winner books, a margin ladder listed in only one direction, the Governor–Senate combo, and the four-state tossup book.

Hinson 58% on Kalshi, 60% on Polymarket; Turek 42% and 40%. Two points apart, and Kalshi carries six times the volume ($20,324 to $3,185) and nine times the open interest. This is the deepest of the three individual Senate races in this catalog by daily turnover, which is what a real tossup looks like next to two 92% holds.

Hinson and Turek priced directly. The split to watch is between price and position: the money moving today leans Turek nearly two to one, while the money already committed leans Hinson three to one.

Kalshi lists Iowa Senate margin rungs for the Democrat and no one else. Democrats 2+ prices 26%, 4+ at 18%, 6+ at 4.5%—and the ladder has traded zero dollars, carrying $4,934 across all three rungs. There is no Republican-side ladder at all, on the race the same exchange prices 58% Republican. Compare the Governor race, where Kalshi lists both KXMIDTERMMOV-IAGOVD and KXMIDTERMMOV-IAGOVR.

The combo book is where the interesting number is. Its modal outcome is a split ticket: Rob Sand and Ashley Hinson at 37%, ahead of a Democratic sweep at 35% and a Republican sweep at 27%. Iowa is the one state in this catalog where the market's single most likely outcome is the two parties splitting the top of the ticket.

• The split ticket at 37%. The combo book's modal outcome is Sand for Governor and Hinson for Senate. Iowa has the ticket-splitting history to support it, but a 37% modal outcome in a four-way book is a weak mode—the other three outcomes hold 63% between them.
• Six points across three Kalshi books. 57%, 58% and 64% on one question. The person-level book sums to 103% and has already settled one leg (Zach Wahls, No). Any read that quotes "the Kalshi price" for Iowa is picking one of three.
• Position versus flow. $551,682 of open interest on Hinson against $180,116 on Turek, while Turek's leg takes nearly twice the daily volume. Committed money says Republican hold; today's money says otherwise. Georgia and North Carolina both run the opposite way.
• A one-directional margin ladder. Three Democrat rungs, no Republican rungs, zero volume. If Kalshi lists the other side, that is a signal the exchange thinks there is demand for pricing a Hinson blowout—and right now nothing prices it at all.
• Governor versus Senate. Sand is 78% for the Governor's mansion while Turek is 42% for the Senate—a thirty-six point spread between two Iowa Democrats on the same ballot, the widest same-state gap in this catalog.
• The tossup combo's sweep legs. Democratic sweep 35%, Republican sweep 15%, and Iowa alone at 2%. Iowa flipping without Texas, Alaska or Ohio is priced as nearly impossible, which makes this seat a correlated bet on the national environment rather than an Iowa bet.

The Governor's race runs the other way, and by a lot. Democrat Rob Sand prices 78% against Republican Zach Lahn at 24%, on $7,775 a day. Polymarket agrees exactly (78/27). So the same Iowa electorate is priced 78% Democratic at the top of the ticket and 58% Republican one line down—a thirty-six point spread that is the whole reason the combo book's modal outcome is a split.

Worth noting the Governor book's own overround: 78 plus 24 is 102, and the two legs hold nearly identical open interest ($137,016 and $144,131) despite the three-to-one price gap.

Two books that price Iowa against something other than itself.

The second Kalshi Iowa book (Iowa Senate winner? (Person)) is the one that disagrees: Hinson 57%, Turek 46%, summing to 103%, on $326 of volume against the main book's $20,324. Its third leg—Zach Wahls—has already resolved No. Two books on one exchange, one point apart on the favorite and four points apart on the challenger.

The four-state tossup combo prices which of Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio the Democrats take. A Democratic sweep is 35%, a Republican sweep 15%, and Iowa alone is 2%. Iowa flipping in isolation is priced as a near-impossibility—this seat trades as a proxy for the national environment, not as an Iowa question.