Iowa Senate 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Iowa's Senate race is one of the most heavily-traded 2026 contests on prediction markets—Kalshi's winner book has been clearing over $500k a day. Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek for the seat, and Kalshi carries the liquid Categorical while Polymarket runs a parallel book; both settle on the certified November 3, 2026 result. Below the anchor pies you'll find the direct candidate prices, the margin-of-victory ladder, and the Governor-Senate combo that reads how Iowa's top two statewide races move together.

Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Settlement: certified result (early January 2027).

Same two-way race on both exchanges, priced as a Categorical pie. Kalshi is the deeper U.S.-retail book and carries nearly all the volume here; Polymarket's parallel event is the cross-exchange check. A persistent gap between them on the winner is the canonical read on where consensus sits.

A functionally binary race—the two candidate markets below carry effectively all the probability mass. Hinson versus Turek is the single number the book converges on.

Beyond the winner: Kalshi's margin-of-victory ladder prices how close the race lands, and the Governor-Senate combo reads whether Iowa splits its ticket or moves as a bloc across its two statewide races.

  • Control leverage. Iowa feeds the national picture—watch it alongside the 2026 Senate Control workspace, where every competitive seat is an input.
  • Volume as signal. This race trades far heavier than its recent partisan lean would suggest; the flow itself is worth watching, since a book this active reprices fast on a single credible poll.
  • Cross-exchange spread. Kalshi is deep and moves first on national money; Polymarket's thinner book can lag or overshoot. A durable gap on the winner usually reflects different turnout models rather than fresh information.
  • Ticket-splitting. The Governor-Senate combo is the cleanest read on whether Iowa voters move as a bloc; divergence between the combo and the standalone Senate pie flags expected split-ticket behavior.