2026 House Control

Control of the US House is one of the largest single-event political markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Democrats price at 85% on Kalshi's CONTROLH-2026 ($158k/24h) while the Senate prices at a dead heat—Republicans 51%, Democrats 49%. A split Congress is now the market's central case, not its tail case.

New this run: the district layer. Kalshi has begun listing individual House races, and one of them is extraordinary. TX-15 turns over $300k a day—nearly twice the national House-control book—on a single South Texas district. Monica De La Cruz (R) prices at 55% against Bobby Pulido (D) at 45%, but $183.6k of the $300k sits on the Pulido leg, the one the market has behind. MN-01, OH-07, UT-02, VA-05, IN-05 and FL-22 are listed too, none above $17k.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Settlement source: AP and state certifications.

Kalshi's two-party House Categorical paired with Polymarket's balance-of-power book, then Kalshi's Congress combo. All three agree on the shape: the House goes Democratic, the Senate is a coin flip, and the joint outcome is roughly evenly split between a Democratic sweep and a split Congress.

Polymarket has Democrats Sweep at 50% and R Senate, D House at 38%; Kalshi's combo has D-House/D-Senate at 47% and D-House/R-Senate at 39%. Two exchanges, two contract structures, the same two-point spread on both legs.

The most-traded leg in both balance-of-power books is the one priced at nothing. Polymarket's "D Senate, R House" trades at 1.2% and carries $27.5k in 24-hour volume—more than the 50% Democrats-Sweep leg and the 38% split-Congress leg combined. Kalshi's equivalent RD leg sits at 1.3% on $6.1k, the second-deepest leg in that book.

That configuration—Republicans holding the House while losing the Senate—requires the two chambers to move in opposite directions from where every other market has them. Volume this concentrated on a near-zero contract is usually someone selling the tail rather than buying it, but the pattern shows up in both books independently, which is worth watching.

Kalshi has begun listing individual House races. TX-15 dwarfs everything else at $300k a day—Monica De La Cruz (R) 55%, Bobby Pulido (D) 45%, with $183.6k of the flow on Pulido. MN-01 is the second-deepest listed district at $16.4k, with Brad Finstad (R) at 69% over Jake Johnson (D) at 30%.

Six listed districts beyond TX-15, and the pattern in five of them is the same as TX-15's: the money is on the trailing leg. UT-02 has Blake Moore at 95.5% and $2.0k of its $2.9k on the 4.5% Democratic contract. IN-05 has Victoria Spartz at 77% and $990 of $1.5k on the challenger. FL-22 has $836 of $1,021 on the 33% Democratic leg. OH-07 is the exception in direction—Democrat Brian Poindexter leads at 79% over Max Miller—and it too has more flow on the trailing side.

Small books, but the consistency is the point: retail flow in district markets skews toward the underdog leg regardless of party.

• A split Congress is the central case now. House Democratic at 85%, Senate Republican at 51%. The combo books price split-Congress at 38-39% against a Democratic sweep at 47-50%. That is not a tail scenario—it is the second-most-likely outcome by a few points.
• TX-15 is the anomaly of the cycle. $300k a day on one South Texas district, against $158k on national House control. No other listed district clears $17k. Whatever is driving that book, it is not proportional interest in the seat.
• And the money is on the loser. $183.6k of TX-15's $300k is on Pulido at 45%. Same shape in UT-02, IN-05, FL-22 and OH-07. Underdog-leg concentration is a structural feature of these small books, not a signal about any one race.
• The near-zero leg is the busiest leg. Polymarket's "D Senate, R House" at 1.2% carries $27.5k—more than the two live scenarios combined—and Kalshi shows the same pattern. Both books independently.
• Cross-exchange spread is two points and stable. Kalshi and Polymarket have agreed on both the House and the joint outcome within a couple of points for weeks. When that spread opens, one side is catching up.
• The Senate is where the House gets decided in the narrative. Senate control at 51/49 with Texas, Michigan, Maine and Georgia all live is the tighter story; the House book has been at 85% long enough to be boring.
• Prediction market ETF wrappers remain paused. Roundhill's BLUH and REDH became effective May 5, 2026 but the SEC paused review over binary-contract structure concerns. The funds are not trading. Bitwise and GraniteShares remain queued.