2026 House Control

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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November 3, 2026—control of the US House across every exchange

Control of the US House is the largest single-event political market on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Probabilities have moved sharply since the start of the year as generic-ballot polling has tightened. This workspace shows the cross-exchange consensus on the two-party House outcome, the full Congress balance-of-power Categorical that includes the Senate, and a long settlement horizon so the workspace stays live all the way to election night and beyond.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Settlement source: AP & state certifications.

ETF wrapper (effective May 5, paused): Roundhill RPM Democratic House (BLUH) and Republican House (REDH) became effective May 5, 2026, but the SEC paused review near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns. The funds are not yet trading; resolution of the SEC's structural questions is the next inflection point for ETF-flow exposure to House-control outcomes.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking as the story develops.

House outcome — binary and Categorical

Kalshi's two-party binary paired with Polymarket's balance-of-power Categorical, then Kalshi's Congress combo Categorical as the richest single view.

What to watch

  • Cross-exchange spread. When Kalshi's House binary and Polymarket's balance-of-power Categorical disagree about which party holds the majority by more than a couple of points, one side is catching up.
  • Kalshi combo (Congress balance of power). The KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB event prices the joint outcome (House + Senate)—it's the richest single market on the page and tends to lead the pure House binary.
  • Generic ballot. Macro polling shocks (major Presidential speech, recession headline, major scandal) move the Categorical and the binary in lockstep.
  • District-level moves. A handful of NJ/NY/VA special-election prints can move the aggregate in May–June as a preview of the fall.
  • Prediction market ETF wrapper—effective but paused. Roundhill's RPM BLUH (Democratic House) and REDH (Republican House) became effective May 5, 2026 but the SEC paused review near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns. Bitwise and GraniteShares filed similar products in February and remain queued behind Roundhill. The funds are not yet trading; once the SEC's structural questions resolve, net creations will be an ambient signal on which party retail flow is favoring.
  • The countdown at the top is targeting 8:00 PM ET on Nov 3, when the first meaningful prints come in and the market begins to settle.