Georgia Senate 2026

Georgia's Senate race pairs incumbent Jon Ossoff against Republican Mike Collins, and the winner book has stopped being a question. Kalshi prices Ossoff 91.4%, Polymarket 93%. Neither has moved meaningfully in a month.

The flow does not match the price. Of the $19,938 that traded on Kalshi's book in twenty-four hours, $16,935—eighty-five percent—went through Collins' leg at 8.5%. Ossoff's 91.4% leg took $3,002. Open interest runs the same way: $585,336 outstanding on Collins against $172,975 on Ossoff, better than three to one on the underdog.

And the map disagrees with the marquee framing. Kalshi's closest Senate race in 2026 book prices Georgia at 3.1% and North Carolina at 2.9%—the two lowest of the nine states it lists. Alaska leads at 13%, Texas at 17%. The races this catalog treats as the headline contests are the ones the market expects to be blowouts, while Senate control still prices 53% Republican. Georgia is not where the majority is decided anymore.

Below: the two winner books, the margin ladder, the Governor–Senate combo, Georgia's runoff rule, and how the state prices against the rest of the map.

A point and a half apart and functionally settled: Ossoff 91.4% on Kalshi, 93% on Polymarket. Kalshi carries sixteen times the depth ($19,938 against $1,236) and effectively all of the open interest. The disagreement worth watching is not between exchanges—it is between price and positioning inside the Kalshi book.

Ossoff at 91.4% and Collins at 8.5%, priced directly. Watch the volume line rather than the price line: the underdog's contract is where the money is going, three to one on open interest and better than five to one on the day.

The margin ladder puts Ossoff around eight points. Democrats 2+ prices 87%, 4+ at 69%, 6+ at 72%, 8+ at 50%, 10+ at 36%, 12+ at 22%, 14+ at 20%. The 8-point rung is the coin flip; the 4-and-6-point rungs are inverted against each other, which is what a $427-a-day book looks like.

The Governor–Senate combo book does not add up. Bottoms and Ossoff prices 62%, Jackson and Ossoff 38%—so the Ossoff side of an exhaustive four-outcome book sums to 100% on its own. Add Bottoms and Collins at 1% and Jackson and Collins at 10% and the whole book prices 111%. Eleven points of overround, sitting there on $777 of daily volume, implying Ossoff at 100% in one direction and 89% in the other.

• Whether the $585,336 on Collins is conviction or hedge. Three times the open interest of the favorite on a leg priced at 8.5%. If it is hedging against a national red wave, the tell would be correlated positioning in Senate control and the seat-count Range rather than in Georgia's own margin ladder.
• The 8-point rung. Democrats 8+ at exactly 50% is the cleanest live question in the stack. Everything above it is priced as a stretch and everything below is priced as near-certain, so the entire distribution hinges on one bucket.
• The runoff rule. Georgia requires 50%+1. Kalshi prices the Senate race being won outright at 92.7%, meaning roughly a one-in-fourteen chance of a January runoff—which would put Georgia back at the center of the majority math weeks after everyone else has finished counting.
• Georgia at 3.1% to be the closest race. Against Alaska's 13% and Texas' 17%. If Georgia's margin ladder tightens while that leg stays at 3%, one of the two books is stale.
• The 111% combo book. It has persisted for weeks on almost no flow. Either arbitrage shows up or it does not, and which one happens says something about whether Kalshi's thin combo books are worth pricing off at all.
• Governor versus Senate. Bottoms is 61% for the Governor's mansion while Ossoff is 91% for the Senate—a thirty-point spread between two statewide Democrats on the same ballot. That gap is the actual competitive race in Georgia this cycle.

Georgia's competitive statewide race is the one at the top of the ballot, not the Senate seat. Keisha Lance Bottoms prices 61% against Republican Rick Jackson at 40% on $16,848 a day—thirty points tighter than Ossoff's race and nearly as deep. Polymarket agrees within a point (60/38).

Beside it, the rule that makes Georgia different: a candidate needs 50%+1 or the race goes to a January runoff. Kalshi's KXGA1ROUND Multiple prices each statewide office being won outright—Senate at 92.7%, Governor at 92%, and every downballot office between 86% and 90%.

Two books that price Georgia against the rest of the board rather than against itself.

Closest Senate race in 2026 ranks the whole map, and Georgia sits third from the bottom at 3.1%—behind Texas (17%), Alaska (13%) and Michigan (11%). Alaska's leg alone took $12,788 of the book's $18,371.

Larger margin of victory: Georgia or North Carolina is a straight coin flip between the two 92% Democratic holds—Georgia 50%, North Carolina 47%—on $205 of volume and $7,800 of open interest.