Georgia Senate 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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Georgia is the marquee 2026 Senate battleground—first-term Democrat Jon Ossoff defends the seat against Republican Mike Collins, and the outcome is one of the few that can flip Senate control. Kalshi carries the liquid winner book and Polymarket runs a parallel Categorical; both settle on the certified November 3, 2026 result. Below the anchor pies you'll find the direct candidate prices, the margin-of-victory ladder, and the Governor-Senate combo that reads how Georgia's top two races move together.

Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Settlement: certified result (early January 2027).

Same two-way race on both exchanges, priced as a Categorical pie. Kalshi is the deeper U.S.-retail book; Polymarket's parallel event is the cross-exchange check. A persistent gap between them on the winner is the canonical read on where consensus sits.

A functionally binary race—the two candidate markets below carry effectively all the probability mass. Ossoff's incumbency versus Collins's challenge is the single number the book converges on.

Beyond the winner: Kalshi's margin-of-victory ladder prices how close the race lands, and the Governor-Senate combo reads whether Georgia splits its ticket or moves as a bloc across its two statewide races.

  • Control leverage. Georgia is one of a handful of seats that can decide the chamber; watch it alongside the 2026 Senate Control workspace, where this race is a top input.
  • Cross-exchange spread. Kalshi is deeper and moves first on national money; Polymarket's thinner book can lag or overshoot. A durable gap on the winner usually reflects different turnout models rather than fresh information.
  • Margin vs. winner. A tight margin ladder alongside a lopsided winner pie means the book is confident on who wins but not by how much—the setup that reprices fastest on a single credible poll.
  • Ticket-splitting. The Governor-Senate combo is the cleanest read on whether Georgia voters move as a bloc; divergence between the combo and the standalone Senate pie flags expected split-ticket behavior.