2027 French Presidential Election

France votes in April and May 2027, and until now this page was built on the wrong exchange. Kalshi's outright book turned $182 in the last twenty-four hours. Polymarket's turned $780,141—a factor of roughly 4,300. Both are added below, anchor first.

The two venues agree on the shape and disagree on the edges. Édouard Philippe is 25% on both. Marine Le Pen is 32.9% on Polymarket and 37% on Kalshi, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14% against 10%. Kalshi's twenty-eight legs sum to 131%; Polymarket's forty-one sum to 96%. On a book this thin the overround is the spread, not a view—but the direction of the gap tells you which venue is actually being made.

What the volume says is stranger than what the prices say. Ségolène Royal, priced at one-tenth of one percent, took $321,649—41% of the entire day's flow. Le Pen, the favorite, took $5,139 and ranks thirty-eighth of forty-one by volume. Twenty-four separate legs each priced at 0.1% took between $10,600 and $12,100 apiece, a band so tight it is hard to read as independent conviction.

The outright winner book on each venue, Polymarket first. Read the pies as levels, not decimals—one side of this pair carries essentially all of the real trading.

Le Pen's leg on each venue. 32.9% on Polymarket, 37% on Kalshi—a four-point cross-exchange gap on the single most-weighted name in the field, and the Polymarket side is the one carrying the volume.

Two books that price the first round rather than the result. Because each candidate is priced independently and two people advance, these columns should total roughly 200%.

Kalshi's advance book totals 251% and Manifold's totals 265%—both well above the coherent level, and neither has traded a dollar in twenty-four hours. Kalshi puts Le Pen at 84% to advance against 37% to win, an implied runoff survival rate of about 44%. Her 2022 second-round share was 41.5%.

Two books that price whether the field even forms as expected.

The ballot-access Multiple asks whether each named candidate actually appears on the ballot—Mélenchon 87%, Le Pen 86%, Philippe 86%, Bruno Retailleau 75%, and Jordan Bardella at just 11%. Its twenty-two legs sum to 961%, so read it one row at a time rather than as a distribution. Le Pen's 2025 embezzlement conviction carried an ineligibility penalty under appeal; 86% is this market's estimate of that appeal.

The socialist bloc primary has Raphaël Glucksmann at 38% and has traded $36.

The day's deepest leg next to the day's most credible one. Ségolène Royal at 0.1% took $321,649. Philippe at 25%—tied with Le Pen for the market's most defensible price and matched to the decimal on Kalshi—took $11,802.

• The volume moved venues and the analysis has to move with it. A book at $780,141 a day and a book at $182 a day are not two readings of the same question. Where they disagree—Le Pen at 32.9% against 37%, Mélenchon at 14% against 10%—weight the Polymarket side.
• Twenty-four legs at 0.1% each taking roughly $11,500. Independent traders do not produce a band that tight across two dozen unrelated names on the same day. Watch whether the pattern repeats tomorrow; if it does, the headline volume figure is not measuring conviction.
• Philippe at 25% on both venues is the only number the two books agree on exactly. Macron's first prime minister, running as the continuity candidate. Kalshi has him at 46% to reach the runoff, Manifold at 44%.
• Le Pen's ballot access at 86% is the tail that matters. Bardella at 2.1% on Polymarket and 6.8% on Kalshi is the market's estimate of what happens if she is off the ballot—far below what a clean substitution would imply.
• The advance books total 251% and 265% against a coherent 200%, and neither has traded. Treat them as a ranking of who is plausible, not as probabilities.