Eurovision 2026 — Bulgaria wins

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Bulgaria wins Eurovision 2026—a clean sweep of jury, televote, and overall

May 16, 2026: the Eurovision grand final settled with Bulgaria taking the trophy. Both Polymarket and Kalshi's winner books resolved Bulgaria Yes, and Polymarket's separate jury and televote markets both resolved Bulgaria as well—a rare unanimous outcome where the producer-friendly jury and the audience televote landed on the same act. The widgets below preserve the final cross-exchange distributions and the price trajectory into settlement.

This workspace tracked the cross-exchange Categorical book leading into the May 16 grand final, the jury-vs-televote split, and the closing price action. With the event resolved, it now stands as a record of how the prediction markets read the night—Polymarket's $976k+/24h winner book was the deeper market on the way in, but the headline call landed correctly on both books.

Grand final winner—cross-exchange settled view

Both books resolved Bulgaria Yes. The Polymarket and Kalshi pies below show the final implied probabilities each exchange carried into settlement; the snapshot captures how aggressively the cross-exchange book converged on Bulgaria as the result came in.

Jury and televote—Bulgaria took both halves

Eurovision's grand final score is the sum of jury points and televote points, and Polymarket runs each half as its own Categorical. In 2026 Bulgaria won both pies outright—jury and televote agreed, which is unusual (the producer-friendly jury and the audience-driven televote frequently split). The settled pies below show each half's final distribution.

  • Bulgaria swept all three books—overall winner, jury winner, and televote winner. The cross-exchange spread on the winner pie collapsed to zero at settlement.
  • Polymarket carried the deeper book through the campaign; its 24-hour winner-pie volume ran roughly 50–100× Kalshi's in the final week, but the two books agreed on the headline call.
  • Jury-vs-televote unanimity is the unusual data point. Most Eurovision finals see the two halves split—the 2026 sweep is the cleanest agreement in several years.
  • History widget below shows the timeline of Polymarket's winner-pie probabilities into May 16.