Ethereum 2026 Tracker

Cross-exchange view on Ethereum's 2026 price path

Polymarket's year-end What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? Multiple is the anchor—each strike (e.g., $3K, $4K, $5K, $6K) prices the probability of a one-touch event before settlement on January 1, 2027. Kalshi mirrors the story with KXETHY-27JAN0100, a Range event on the year-end settle price. Read the two distributions side by side: the Polymarket Multiple is a one-touch ladder, the Kalshi Range is a discrete bucket on the final close. Where they disagree is where the cross-exchange microstructure story lives.

Adjacent context: the current-month one-touch Multiple extends the same frame into a shorter horizon—Polymarket's June 2026 book settled June 30 and the July monthly has not yet listed, so the year-end anchor above is the live cross-exchange read until it does. The companion BTC tracker for the equivalent Bitcoin story is at /w/btc-year-end-2026.

Polymarket's year-end Multiple as a one-touch strike chain, paired with Kalshi's KXETHY-27JAN0100 Range on the actual year-end close.

Near-term context: Polymarket's June 2026 one-touch Multiple settled June 30, shown here as the realized month-end distribution—it illustrates how the Multiple ladder tightens as the horizon shortens, paired with the year-end Range above. Polymarket's July monthly has not yet listed; the year-end anchor is the live read, and the July book rotates in automatically once it lists.

What to watch.

• Strike-distribution shape on the Polymarket year-end Multiple. When mass clusters around a single strike, the market thinks ETH lands in a tight band; when the distribution flattens across multiple strikes, the market is pricing significant tail risk. The implied PDF here is the cleanest read on year-end ETH expectations.
• Polymarket Multiple vs. Kalshi Range disagreement. Polymarket prices a one-touch ladder (any time before settle), Kalshi prices the final settle. When Polymarket buckets sit above Kalshi buckets at the same strike, the market is implying mean-reversion or a peak-and-fade path; the spread between the two distributions is the cross-exchange basis on the same underlying.
• Month-to-month roll-through. When the current-month Multiple's leading bucket finishes ITM, the year-end Multiple often re-prices accordingly. Watch which strike the new month opens around vs. where the old month settled.
• BTC vs ETH tracker spread. The companion BTC tracker shows the same one-touch pattern on Bitcoin. Cross-asset correlation usually re-prices fast in the first 24 hours after a major macro print (CPI, FOMC); a divergence between the two tracker year-end distributions is the cleanest cross-asset crypto basis read.