Ethereum 2026 Tracker

Polymarket's year-end What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? Multiple is the anchor—each strike (e.g., $3K, $4K, $5K, $6K) prices the probability of a one-touch event before settlement on January 1, 2027. Kalshi mirrors the story with KXETHY-27JAN0100, a Range event on the year-end settle price. Read the two distributions side by side: the Polymarket ladder is a one-touch chain (did ETH ever trade there?), the Kalshi Range is a terminal-value distribution (where does it close?). Those are different questions and they routinely disagree.

Beneath them, Kalshi runs a matched pair of Cumulative ladders on the year's realized extremes—how high ETH gets in 2026 and how low it gets—which together bracket the year's expected trading range. Polymarket's monthly one-touch series has not listed a July book; the year-level ladders are the live read until it does.

Polymarket's year-end Multiple as a one-touch strike chain, paired with Kalshi's KXETHY-27JAN0100 Range on the actual year-end close.

Kalshi's KXETHMAXY-27JAN01 and KXETHMINY-27JAN01 price the year's realized high and realized low as matched Cumulative ladders. Read as a pair they are an implied range: the gap between the median high strike and the median low strike is the market's expected 2026 trading band, and it is a cleaner volatility read than any single one-touch strike on the year-end chain above.

• Strike-distribution shape on the Polymarket year-end Multiple. When mass clusters around a single strike, the market thinks ETH lands in a tight band; when the distribution flattens across strikes, it is pricing significant tail risk. The implied PDF here is the cleanest read on year-end expectations.
• Polymarket Multiple vs. Kalshi Range disagreement. The Polymarket chain asks "does ETH ever touch this level"; the Kalshi Range asks "where does ETH settle." A one-touch strike should always price at or above the corresponding terminal-value bucket. When it doesn't, one of the two books is mispriced or the settlement definitions have drifted—worth checking before trusting either.
• The high/low ladders bracket the year. With roughly five months left in 2026, both realized-extreme ladders have most of their information already baked in—the low ladder in particular is largely determined by prices that have already printed. Movement in the high ladder is therefore the more informative of the two from here.
• No live July monthly. Polymarket has not listed a July one-touch book. Until it does, the near-term horizon is unpriced on this page and the year-level ladders are carrying the whole distribution—read short-horizon conclusions cautiously.