Ethereum 2026 Tracker

Kalshi's August 18 ladder implies $1,902.80, up from $1,872.86 on Sunday—ETH added 1.6% and cleared $1,900 for the first time in this workspace's record. The near book stayed tight and the far book finally woke up.

Same-day: still extreme, slightly less so. The range book puts 64% on ETH settling between $1,890 and $1,929.99—a forty-dollar band—down from 79.5% on the equivalent bucket Sunday. On $23,043 of volume. Confidence eased as the level rose.

Year-end: it traded, and the mode moved up. The December 31 range book turned over $9,270, against $1,095 two days ago—an 8.5x jump. Its modal bucket is now $2,000–$2,249.99 at 13.45%, one notch above the $1,750–$1,999.99 bucket that led on Sunday. But the mode is less confident than before: 13.45% against 16.6%. The book got busier and flatter at the same time.

The left tail did not move. $999.99 or below still prices 10.15%—a 47% drawdown—almost identical to Sunday's 10.1%, and now within three points of the modal bucket. Four months out, this market gives nearly the same weight to ETH halving as to it closing where the mode sits.

Cross-exchange, Polymarket's one-touch book turned over $42,069, three and a half times Sunday's $12,101, and it disagrees with Kalshi about the downside by up to sixteen points. That spread is below.

$41,770 on the cumulative ladder, $23,043 on the range book. Between them, today's two Kalshi contracts carry $64,813—but the year-end book's $9,270 means the term structure is no longer vestigial. Two sessions ago it was 1.7% of daily flow; today it is 14%.

The cumulative ladder's flow is stacked above the money, as always:

• $1,850 or above — 98.5%, $10,146
• $1,890 or above — 70.5%, $7,564
• $1,930 or above — 6.5%, $17,575
• $1,970 or above — 1.5%, $6,317

$23,892—57% of the book—sits on two strikes priced at 6.5% and 1.5%. The $1,930 rung alone is the deepest leg on the page, and it is the one the same book calls a fifteen-to-one shot five hours from settlement.

The range book shows the mirror image: $4,549 on the $1,810–$1,849.99 bucket at 1.5%, second-deepest in a book whose modal outcome trades at 64%. Both contracts agree on where ETH is. The money on both is positioned for it not to stay there—the identical structure the metals and crude books showed today.

Kalshi's floor book and Polymarket's matching one-touch leg, side by side—the same question about how low Ethereum goes this year, priced eight points apart at $1,500 and sixteen and a half apart at $1,250. Kalshi's rung is a settlement-style below contract; Polymarket's is a dip to one-touch. On a path-dependent question the two should converge, and they have not.

Polymarket asks what price ETH hits; Kalshi asks where it closes and, separately, how low it gets. The second pair is the same question on two exchanges, and today they are a long way apart.

• ETH reaches a $1,500 low — Kalshi 48.5%, Polymarket 40.4%
• ETH reaches a $1,250 low — Kalshi 35.5%, Polymarket 19.0%
• ETH reaches a $1,000 low — Kalshi 14.5%, Polymarket 11.0%

Sixteen and a half points on the $1,250 leg, and the money is real on both sides—$6,418 on Kalshi's rung, $4,284 on Polymarket's. Polymarket's $1,500 leg is the single deepest contract in ETH anywhere on this platform at $18,324.

On the upside the two agree better: Polymarket prices touching $2,000 at 84.5%, $2,250 at 57.5%, $2,500 at 38.5%, a coherent one-touch curve against Kalshi's flat settlement distribution. The disagreement is entirely about how far down this year goes.

The 2026 maximum and minimum books resolve the asymmetry the range book only implies, and the imbalance is now extreme. The year-low ladder trades $6,760 a day against the year-high's $699—nearly ten to one. In crude and gasoline nobody buys downside; in ETH, downside is the only thing anyone buys.

Below $1,250 at 35.5% took $6,418, 95% of the entire floor book, and carries 137,563 contracts of open interest. The ceiling book's best leg is Above $3,500 at 11.5% on $287.

That is consistent with the 10.15% on sub-$1,000 in the settlement book, and with ETH sitting third at 29% on Kalshi's positive-return-in-2026 book—tied with Chainlink, ahead of Bitcoin at 19.5%. Whatever the market thinks the upside case is, it is not paying to express it.

Whether the $40 band holds through 5pm. 64% on a two-percent-wide bucket is looser than Sunday's 79.5% but still the most confident short-horizon pricing in the catalog. Two settlements inside the modal bucket in a row would start to make the daily range book's confidence look earned rather than overpriced.

The $17,575 on the 6.5% leg. Same structure as gold's $4,445 rung and copper's $6.88 strike, and it recurred in every commodity book on the platform today: price at the money, money on the tail. Whatever this is, it is not asset-specific.

The sixteen-point cross-exchange gap on $1,250. Kalshi 35.5%, Polymarket 19%, real money on both. This is the largest same-question spread in the catalog right now and the only genuinely cross-exchange signal ETH has.

Whether the year-end book keeps trading. It went from $1,095 to $9,270 in two days and its mode moved up a bucket while getting less confident. A market that gets busier and flatter is repricing, not converging—watch whether Q4 tightens it.

The 10-to-1 floor-versus-ceiling ratio. $6,760 against $699. ETH is the only asset in this catalog where the downside book is the liquid one.