DHS Shutdown 2026 — Aftermath

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

The 2026 DHS funding fight resolved earlier this year—every "when does DHS get funded" market on Kalshi and Polymarket settled, the component-funding Multiple settled, and the cumulative shutdown-length contract settled. This workspace pivots to what's still being priced: will another government shutdown happen in 2026, and how does a second lapse interact with control of the House.

Surviving books: Kalshi — KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01 (how many shutdowns in 2026?) · Polymarket — Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026.

Volume is thin on the surviving DHS-specific books because the immediate story is over; the framing now is whether the next funding fight produces another shutdown. Copy this workspace to keep tracking the post-resolution path.

Will another shutdown happen in 2026

Kalshi's KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01 Range distributes the count of 2026 government shutdowns; Polymarket's compound Categorical ties a second shutdown to the 2026 House winner. The Range is the pure count read; the Categorical is the count×control read.

  • Will the second 2026 shutdown probability hold below 50%. Kalshi's Range mass on "1 shutdown" vs. "≥2" is the cleanest read—the spring DHS shutdown already counts as one.
  • Compound House×shutdown Categorical. Polymarket prices a second shutdown conditional on each House outcome; when one bucket diverges from the unconditional Range mass, that's a structural disagreement on whether divided or unified government produces shutdowns.
  • Cross-exchange spread. When Kalshi's count-implied second-shutdown probability and Polymarket's direct market diverge, the gap is the trade.