July 2026 CPI Release

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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BLS releases July 2026 CPI at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 12. Kalshi lists the print as a full cumulative chain (headline CPI, headline YoY, core YoY, core MoM)—structurally a strike chain on inflation. Read it the way you would an options chain and you can see exactly where the market thinks inflation lands and how wide the tails are. Polymarket doesn't list a single-month July 2026 inflation event, so the cross-exchange context for this print sits in the 2026-annual markets; a single Manifold market provides a separate sanity check.

Kalshi settles its KXCPI-26JUL cumulative ladder against the BLS headline CPI index; the YoY and core chains settle on the same August 12 release.

Kalshi's cumulative July CPI event displayed as its native chart, paired with headline YoY for the year-over-year story. The strike-chain distributions tighten as the August 12 release approaches.

Kalshi's Categorical MoM print sits next to the core MoM cumulative chain. Below: Polymarket's full-year 2026 inflation market and a single Manifold sanity check on whether annual inflation stays above 3%—Polymarket's monthly July 2026 release isn't listed, so the cross-exchange context lives in the annual markets.

  • The cumulative chain is the signal. Each bucket prices the probability that CPI comes in at or above that threshold. Derivatives traders already know how to read this.
  • Headline vs. core YoY divergence. When the headline chain moves but core doesn't, services inflation is staying sticky and a chunk of the print is energy / supercore noise.
  • MoM Categorical vs. cumulative MoM. Same data, two presentations—the cumulative chain shows the smooth distribution; the Categorical pie shows the discrete bucket the market thinks is most likely.
  • Annual context. Polymarket and the Manifold check are year-long markets, so they move much more slowly than the print-day chains; treat them as a backdrop, not a print-day signal.
  • Print day mechanics. Kalshi settles at the BLS release on August 12; expect the cumulative chain widgets to converge sharply in the final 24 hours.