Colombia 2026—de la Espriella wins

Colombia voted in its presidential first round on May 31, 2026 and held the runoff between the top two finishers on June 21, 2026. In the narrowest presidential result in recent Colombian history—a margin under 250,000 votes—Abelardo de la Espriella defeated Iván Cepeda. Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolved their winner books to de la Espriella on June 24, 2026, once the count was finalized.

Anchor: Polymarket—Colombia Presidential Election ran the deepest book; Kalshi's KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26 was the US-resident mirror, with Manifold a third read. The runoff Categoricals are settled now; the charts below preserve the final cross-exchange distribution.

Why it matters: the highest-volume Latin American electoral book on prediction markets—a clean case of two exchanges converging on a razor-thin result as the official count finalized. Copy this workspace to study how the books priced the contested finish.

First-round books across three exchanges, now settled on the May 31 result. Polymarket ran the deepest book into close; the Kalshi sibling Categorical (KXCOLOMBIAPRESR1-26MAY31) was already settled out of this view, leaving the Polymarket 1st-round chart as the historical distribution into the runoff.

The Polymarket general-election Categorical and the Kalshi KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26 Categorical booked the same question—who wins the presidency—and both resolved to de la Espriella on June 24, 2026. Manifold's who-will-win-colombias-2026-preside is still open and reads the same result as a play-money sanity check.

Two structural sub-questions sit alongside the resolved runoff. The first—who finished second in the first round—settled: Iván Cepeda finished second and contested the June 21 runoff that de la Espriella won; the settled chart preserves that final distribution. The second—whether Gustavo Petro exits power before the August handover—stays live; he did not leave by the June 30 rung, so pricing has rolled to the later exit dates.

• The result is settled. Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolved their winner books to de la Espriella on June 24, 2026; the runoff Categoricals below show the final cross-exchange distribution.
• Petro-out-by Multiple as the live political-risk leg. Gustavo Petro is term-limited and barred from succeeding himself; he did not exit by the June 30 rung, so the live rungs (July 31 and later) now price whether and when he leaves before the August transition.
• Manifold as the lingering forecast. The play-money book is still open and offers a read on how that crowd settles the same outcome.
• First-round distribution as context. The settled May 31 Polymarket chart preserves how the field looked before the runoff narrowed it to the final two.