Colombia Presidential Election 2026

May 31, 2026—Colombia's first round, runoff June 21

Colombia votes for a new president on May 31, 2026, with a near-certain runoff on June 21 between the top two candidates. The race is the highest-volume Latin American electoral book on prediction markets right now, with roughly $425k of combined 24-hour volume across the first round and runoff Categoricals on Polymarket alone, plus Kalshi and Manifold listing the same field. This workspace pulls every major exchange's Categorical view of the field side by side, the 1st-round 2nd-place sub-event, the outright-winner binary, and the Petro-out-by Multiple as the political-risk leg.

First round: Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Runoff: Sunday, June 21, 2026 (only if no candidate wins outright in the first round).
Anchor settlement source: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through the runoff.

May 31 first round—cross-exchange view

The 1st-round Categoricals price the same question across three exchanges: who finishes first in the May 31 vote? Polymarket runs the deepest book at ~$217k 24h volume; Kalshi's KXCOLOMBIAPRESR1-26MAY31 is the same Categorical for US-resident traders. Spread between the two on the leading candidate is the cross-exchange signal.

June 21 runoff and overall winner

The Polymarket general-election Categorical (settles June 21) and the Kalshi KXCOLOMBIAPRES-26 Categorical book the same question: who actually wins the presidency? Manifold's who-will-win-colombias-2026-preside adds a third forecast, useful as a sanity check on how the play-money crowd reads the same field.

Path: 2nd place, outright wins, and Petro

Three structural sub-questions feed the main Categoricals: who finishes second in the first round (the runoff opponent), whether anyone wins outright on May 31 (skipping the runoff entirely), and whether Gustavo Petro—the incumbent president, term-limited—exits office on a non-standard timeline. The Petro-out-by Multiple is the political-risk leg; sharp moves on the nearer rungs typically precede a re-pricing of the main field.

What to watch

• Cross-exchange spread on the 1st-round leader. When Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on the leading candidate by more than a few points, one book is catching up. Polymarket leads on volume and on Latin American-resident liquidity; Kalshi is the US-resident layer.
• 1st-round vs. runoff Categoricals on the same candidate. A candidate who's the runaway 1st-round leader but priced barely above 50% on the runoff is being read as winning the field but losing a head-to-head—classic Latin American left-right runoff dynamics.
• Outright-winner binary as a tail check. The Kalshi KXCOLOMBIAPRES1R-26MAY31 Single prices the probability that someone clears 50%+1 in the first round, skipping the runoff. Sustained drift above ~10% is unusual and signals a structural concentration of the field.
• Petro-out-by Multiple as the political-risk leg. Sharp moves on the nearer rungs (June 30, July 31) precede re-pricing of every other event in this workspace.
• The countdown targets the May 31 16:00 UTC close of polls. Most of the meaningful re-pricing happens during the count and into Sunday night.