Climate and Hurricane Season 2026

For weeks the Atlantic first-hurricane naming board quoted all twenty-one names at half a cent while holding a quarter of a million contracts. That has broken. Isaias is now 14.0% and Josephine 2.5%, on a board carrying 284,429 contracts of open interest and $2,893 of volume today.

It is still a strange page. Arthur took $1,870 today—the most of any name—at half a cent, on 100,772 contracts of standing open interest. The two names with a real price took $310 between them. The money is on the leg the board says will not happen and the pricing is on the legs nobody is trading.

The season itself is priced quiet and getting quieter. Above four hurricanes is 13.0%, above five 7.5%, above six 4.5%, on 33,010 contracts. At least one major hurricane is 44.0%, which means the market gives better than even odds that the 2026 Atlantic season ends without a single Category 3.

Hurricane Dolly's category board is settled in fact but still quoted. All five rungs—Category 1 or above through Category 5 or above—read half a cent, on 42,295 contracts and $5,783 of volume today. Dolly did not become a hurricane, and the board is now a place to close positions rather than open them.

And the date board still carries elapsed gates. "Before Aug 15" and "Before Sep 1" both read exactly 50.0%, unchanged, with 9,406 contracts frozen on the September gate—the largest single position on that board, resolved a week ago and still rendering a coin flip.

August 2026 being the hottest August on record is 95.5% on a 95/96 quote—the NOAA monthly print is what settles it, not the market. Beside it, the Arctic sea ice minimum board: below 4.5 million sq km is 74.5%, below 4.4 million 39.5%, below 4.3 million 15.0%, on 8,840 contracts. It settles October 2, and the minimum is normally set in mid-September.

The season as the market prices it. Above four hurricanes is 13.0%, above five 7.5%, above six 4.5%, above seven 1.0%. On the major-hurricane board, above zero is 44.0% and above one 17.5%—so the modal 2026 Atlantic season, as priced, has four or fewer hurricanes and no majors at all. Both boards settle December 2.

The naming board, and the reason it is the strangest page in this workspace. 284,429 contracts of open interest against $2,893 of volume today—and $1,870 of that volume bought Arthur at half a cent, a name holding 100,772 contracts on its own.

Isaias at 14.0% and Josephine at 2.5% are the only two names with a real quote. Beside it, Dolly's category board: five rungs, all at half a cent, 42,295 contracts, and $5,783 traded today on a question that no longer has an open outcome.

The date board, where two gates that have already passed are still quoted. "Before Aug 15" and "Before Sep 1" both read exactly 50.0%, and the September gate holds 9,406 contracts—more than any live rung on the board.

The live gates read sensibly enough: before September 15 at 0.5%, before October 1 at 54.5%, before October 15 at 78.5%. So the market expects the next Atlantic hurricane in the back half of September at the earliest. Beside it, the East Pacific naming board: 24 names, $161 of volume, and Xavier at 40.5% on nineteen contracts.

The Hawaii hurricane-path contract and Kalshi's Oklahoma City temperature board, both of which quote two-sided across their whole ladder.

Oklahoma City for today turns $7,023 across six buckets: 101° to 102° at 64.0%, 103° to 104° at 25.0%, 99° to 100° at 11.0%, with $1,205 sitting on "105° or above" at 1.5%. It settles at 19:00 UTC tomorrow. A tidy, well-quoted distribution—and a useful control against the hurricane boards above, where the open interest is enormous and the daily volume is close to nothing.

The hurricane boards run to December 1 and the August temperature contract settles on the NOAA monthly print. The Arctic ice board settles October 2, with the minimum normally set in mid-September.

• Isaias at 14.0%. The naming board has quoted flat for weeks; this is the first name to carry a real price, and whether it holds is the tell for whether that board has woken up or twitched.
• Arthur's 100,772 contracts at half a cent, still taking the most volume on the board. That is a position being worked, not a forecast.
• The 44.0% on at least one major hurricane. It is the single most consequential number here and it has been drifting up slowly all season.
• Dolly's category board, five rungs at half a cent on 42,295 contracts. It should delist; until it does, the $5,783 traded on it today is position-closing, not opinion.
• The two elapsed date gates at exactly 50.0%, with 9,406 contracts on the September one. They have rendered that way for over a week.