UK Politics 2026 — after Clacton

Reform UK held Clacton on August 13 and Count Binface finished second, exactly as the books priced it at 98%. Three days later every Kalshi contract in the series has been removed from the exchange—winner, margin, second, third and fourth place, and the Binface vote-share ladder. Ten of this workspace's twenty widgets pointed at them.

That is worth stating plainly rather than quietly patching: a settled Kalshi event series does not stay queryable. Retrospective workspaces built on Kalshi tickers have a shelf life measured in days, and the honest response is to move the page forward rather than preserve a broken record of a by-election. Manifold's Clacton book survives and is retained below as the result of record.

What replaces it is thin. UK politics has almost no listed depth on any exchange this platform covers. The deepest contract is Manifold's UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham at $828 a day; everything else runs under $100. Kalshi lists no UK political market at all. This page is now an honest picture of a genuinely under-served geography rather than a busy picture of a settled one.

The Clacton result stands: Reform held, Binface second, and $79,700 of an $88,700 winner book sat on his one-percent leg before the count.

Manifold's which party will win the Clacton by-election market, settled, alongside the Farage and Binface binaries. This is the complete surviving record of the August 13 vote on any exchange covered here.

The forecast held up well. Reform UK was priced at 99% to hold and did; Count Binface was priced at 98% to finish ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives and did. What the books got wrong was the date—Kalshi's tickers read September 1, which was the settlement deadline rather than the polling day, and the narrative on this page carried that error for a day before the count corrected it.

Retained for the record: the two Manifold binaries that carried Clacton's cross-exchange flow. Farage's party held the seat; Binface took second.

The distribution of money on that book remains the more interesting artifact than the result. Reform's win was never in question at 99%, so the entire market was a bet on second place, and nearly the whole book concentrated on a candidate polling in low single digits. Novelty candidates in safe seats are where by-election prediction markets actually price something.

Not much, and it is all on Manifold.

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham — $828 a day, the deepest UK political contract on any exchange this platform covers. It is a succession book with no scheduled event behind it, which is why it settles in 2060.

Who will be the next British PM following a general election — $31 a day, resolving 2029.

On what dates will Andy Burnham's successor be Prime Minister — $21 a day, a Multiple over date ranges rather than names, and the only contract here that prices timing rather than identity.

Will Keir Starmer have a full term — $50 a day, resolving 2029, and now largely a historical question.

Add the UK's nominal GDP ladder and the cross-country recession book from Kalshi and that is the entire listed UK exposure available. Total daily volume across all of it is under a thousand dollars.

Kalshi lists no UK political market, but it does list UK nominal GDP for 2026 as a Cumulative ladder and carries the UK inside its which countries will have a recession before 2027 Multiple. Both trade zero.

They are included because they are the only Kalshi-side UK exposure that exists, and because the recession book is the one contract that puts the UK on the same page as the other economies in this catalog. Zero volume is itself the finding: an entire G7 economy with no traded event-contract market on either major US exchange.

Whether Kalshi relists UK politics at all. Clacton was its first UK by-election series and it drew roughly $110k a day at peak. That is respectable volume for a single constituency, and the exchange pulled the whole family within 72 hours of settlement rather than leaving it queryable. Whether a second UK series appears is the test of whether Clacton was an experiment or a beachhead.

The delisting behavior itself. This is the practical lesson for anyone building on Kalshi data: settled series disappear. Retrospective analysis has to be captured at settlement, not reconstructed later. This page lost half its widgets to that.

Manifold's succession book. $828 a day is small in absolute terms and enormous relative to everything else UK-listed. It is the only place a view on British politics can currently be expressed at any size.

The next scheduled UK event. There isn't one on any exchange here. When a contract with a real date appears, this workspace anchors to it.