UK Politics 2026 — one leadership board, and no flow

Manifold has delisted UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer. It was two of this workspace's widgets—the pie and the history chart—and it followed Kalshi's removal of the whole Clacton family a fortnight ago. What is left of UK politics on the four supported exchanges is now a single Manifold board, a Polymarket count market, and two Kalshi by-election contracts.

None of them trade. Manifold's surviving leadership board has zero open interest and zero volume. Polymarket's Prime Minister count board, at $24,028 of open interest the largest UK political contract anywhere, turned nothing today. Kalshi's by-election ladder is non-monotone and effectively dormant.

The prices are still readable, and they say the same thing they said a month ago. Nigel Farage leads the next-PM board at 30.37%, Kemi Badenoch second at 9.06%, Robert Jenrick 2.54%, Angela Rayner 2.43%. The board sums to exactly 100.0%—Manifold's mechanism enforces that—so unlike the Kalshi boards elsewhere in this catalog there is no overround to strip.

The only UK contracts with genuine depth are macro. Nominal GDP and the by-election count ladder. Neither is a political book in any useful sense.

This workspace exists to document an absence, and the absence has grown. If Manifold delists the surviving board, there will be no UK leadership market on any supported exchange.

Manifold's Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election? is now the only leadership board still resolving—the after Keir Starmer event it sat beside has been delisted. Twenty-four names, summing to exactly 100.0%, zero open interest and zero volume today: Farage 30.37%, Badenoch 9.06%, Jenrick 2.54%, Rayner 2.43%, and Jeremy Clarkson at 1.07%.

Beside it, Polymarket's How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?—the largest UK political contract anywhere at $24,028 of open interest, and it has traded nothing today.

Where the money actually is: Manifold's Starmer full-term binary, and the three legs of its Prime Minister board. Volume across all four is effectively nil.

What is actually listed on UK politics right now: Polymarket's Prime Minister count, and Kalshi's two by-election ladders. All three have quote-quality problems—check the volume column before reading any slice.

The UK's two Kalshi macro contracts. Nominal GDP holds $7,905 and the global recession board carries the UK as one of its legs. These are the only depth on this page.

A second UK leadership board was delisted since the last refresh. UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer is gone from Manifold. The two widgets that pointed at it now point at the surviving next British Prime Minister board, which is the last leadership contract standing across all four supported exchanges.

Nothing here trades. Zero volume and zero open interest on the surviving Manifold board; nothing through Polymarket's $24,028 count market today; Kalshi's by-election ladder dormant and non-monotone.

Farage at 30.37% is the only number worth quoting, and it has not moved materially in weeks—which is what you would expect from a book with no flow through it.

Manifold's boards sum to 100.0% by construction. Worth noting against the Kalshi outrights elsewhere in this catalog today, which sum to anything from 106% to 4755%. The mechanism, not the participants, is what makes the difference.

If the last Manifold board goes, this workspace has nothing left to track. That is a real possibility on current trend and would be the cleanest available evidence that UK politics is not a viable event contract market on US-facing venues.