Bitcoin Year-End 2026

Bitcoin — the 2026 year-end distribution

Year-end BTC price is the single cleanest case study for treating prediction markets as derivatives. Polymarket's what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027 lists a full range of year-end targets; Kalshi prices the same distribution across multiple cumulative and Range variants, plus the question of whether BTC touches $200k before 2027 and how low it gets along the way. Together they form a trading-calibrated implied distribution that options desks don't currently reference — but should.

Settlement: End of 2026.

Settlement source: CME BTC index.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking as the story develops.

Year-end implied distribution

Polymarket's year-end Range paired with Kalshi's year-end Range — two different views of the same distribution.

Path and tails

Cumulative chains on when BTC crosses round numbers, how low it gets, whether it touches $200k, and the best-month Categorical.

What to watch

• Polymarket Range as the implied distribution. Read it like an options-chain probability mass function. Each bucket is a trading-calibrated probability density.
• Kalshi's year-end Range and the $200k binary. The tails of the distribution get expressed here. When the $200k binary drifts more than 2 points in a day, the whole right tail of the Range is re-pricing.
• $150k and $100k-again timing markets. Polymarket's $150k Multiple is the deepest 24-hour book on "when does BTC cross $150k"; Kalshi's KXBTCMAX100-26 Cumulative covers the symmetric "$100k-again" timing question. Together they're the timing complement to the level Range—path-dependence priced as dated buckets.
• Min-of-year cumulative chain. KXBTCMINY-27JAN01 prices the left tail. Use the min chain as a quick proxy for realized vol.
• Polymarket best-month Categorical. A path visualization you can't get anywhere else—which month the 2026 BTC high prints in.