Top AI Model Tracker

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Which lab is shipping the best frontier model? Polymarket's leaderboard books settled at the end of June and it has not relisted a monthly since, so the live book has consolidated onto Kalshi, where the question trades at three horizons at once.

Year-end (KXLLM1-26DEC31) is the deep durable and the anchor here—Claude leads at roughly 66%, with ChatGPT near 15% and Grok and Gemini in single digits. Monthly (KXLLM1-26AUG31) prices where August closes. Weekly (KXTOPMODEL-26AUG10, plus a separate coding-specific leaderboard) is the highest-frequency read in the AI category anywhere on prediction markets: it reprices within hours of a flagship release, and each week's book settles Monday and relists the same day.

Below the three horizons sits KXTOPAI-27, a breadth book on which companies hold a top-ranked model at any point this year, and a year-end coding-specific leaderboard.

The year-end durable next to the August monthly. When the monthly and the year-end books name different leaders, the market is pricing a handoff later in 2026—usually on an expected release rather than current benchmark standing.

The weekly leaderboards—overall and coding-specific—are the fastest-moving books in the category. Coding is where the top slot has changed hands most often in 2026, so the two frequently disagree.

Breadth rather than winner-take-all: KXTOPAI-27 prices which companies hold a top-ranked model at any point during the year. A wide distribution here alongside a concentrated year-end book means the market expects the lead to change hands repeatedly without settling.

  • Release windows drive everything. Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, xAI, and the Chinese labs (Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot, DeepSeek) all reprice these books on flagship launches. The weekly leaderboard typically moves within hours; the year-end book takes days to absorb the same news.
  • The weekly rolls every Monday. The Aug 3 books settled and Kalshi relisted for the week ending Aug 10. The weekly panels below track the current book—expect them to reset again next Monday.
  • Coding vs. overall. The coding leaderboard has been the more volatile of the two in 2026. It currently sits more concentrated than the overall book, which is the reverse of the pattern that held through the spring.
  • Weekly-to-year-end spread. The current week prices a near-lock on the incumbent while the December book leaves roughly a third of the distribution elsewhere. That gap is the cleanest measure of how much the market expects the lead to change hands over the rest of the year.
  • Breadth vs. winner-take-all. A wide KXTOPAI-27 distribution alongside a concentrated year-end book means the market expects the top slot to trade hands repeatedly without any one lab holding it at the wire.