Top AI Model Tracker

Shared workspace on Qwidgets for tracking prediction markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and PredictIt. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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Top AI model tracker—July book pending, durable in the lead

Which lab is shipping the best frontier model this month? Polymarket and Kalshi both run leaderboard markets where the winner is the company holding the #1 LMArena (or equivalent benchmark) slot on settlement day. The June 30, 2026 settlement has now closed out the June book; Polymarket's July monthly leaderboard has not yet listed. Until it does, the live cross-exchange read is Kalshi's durable year-end book (Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?, Multiple), which prices the same question across the full year.

The widgets below show the settled June distribution, the live Kalshi year-end durable, the Polymarket second-best market for distribution shape, and the price trajectory into the June settlement. The July anchor rotates in automatically once Polymarket lists it.

The June leaderboard has settled; Kalshi's durable year-end book (KXTOPAI-27) is the live cross-exchange read until Polymarket's July monthly lists. Compare where the month settled versus where the broader 2026 consensus sits.

The Polymarket second-best book sets the distribution shape: when the second-best market is also concentrated, the leaderboard is being read as a two-horse race; when it's spread, the race is open.

The June anchor's daily history shows whether the lead is steady or contested. The Polymarket coding-model leaderboard (best and second-best) provides an adjacent slice—coding ability is where the LMArena top has been most volatile across labs in 2026.

What to watch: model-release windows from Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, xAI, and the Chinese labs (Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot, Baidu, DeepSeek). LMArena leaderboard volatility tends to spike in the 48 hours after any of those labs ships a new flagship—watch the Kalshi weekly market for the cleanest near-term signal and the monthly books for where the consensus settles. The June Polymarket book has settled; the Kalshi year-end durable extends the same question across the full year as the July monthly comes online and the rest of 2026 plays out.