2028 Presidential Election

November 7, 2028—tracking the general election and the field

This workspace pulls together every liquid 2028 presidential event across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold. The anchor is the general-election winner as a Categorical (pie, top 5), with the party-nominee fields underneath and the Kalshi matchup event at the bottom so the two-step "who's the nominee → who wins" story lines up visually.

Election Day: Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Anchor: Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · Kalshi — KXPRESPERSON-28 · Manifold mirror. ETF wrapper (effective May 5, paused): Roundhill RPM Democratic President (BLUP) and Republican President (REDP) became effective May 5, 2026 but the SEC paused review near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns. Both target the 2028 general-election outcome and remain pre-launch pending resolution.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through the primaries and the general.

General election winner—cross-exchange view

Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold all list a general-election winner Categorical. Pies top 5 so each chart is the current market-implied top candidates, sorted. Spread between exchanges on any single candidate is the cross-exchange signal—Polymarket tends to concentrate around a couple of names; Kalshi's field is broader; Manifold skews to community consensus.

Party nominees—Democratic and Republican fields

Polymarket and Kalshi both list separate Democratic and Republican nominee Categorical events. The nominee pies are typically the most-traded layer of a presidential cycle this far out because the primary field is actively being priced. Watch these as the leading indicator for general-election convergence.

Matchup—named pairings on Election Day

Kalshi's KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07 lists the specific D-vs-R matchups traders are pricing for November 7. The matchup pie is the compound view: it multiplies the two nominee pies and resolves against the actual pairing that shows up on Election Day.

What to watch

• Nominee-to-general drift. When a candidate moves in their party pie, the general-election pie usually follows with a delay—if it doesn't, one exchange is catching up.
• Cross-exchange spread on the leader. Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on the front-runner enough of the time to generate meaningful spread. Kalshi tends to be slower-moving in presidential Categoricals because of lower retail flow; Polymarket is more reactive but also more crowded on top 2 names.
• Matchup consistency. The Kalshi matchup event is the compound of both nominee pies. If it doesn't roughly equal the product of the two nominee fields, there's a structural edge to trade or a market-maker error to flag.
• Manifold as community prior. Manifold's play-money general-election market typically runs ahead of exchange pies on surprising candidates and behind on front-runners. Useful as a sanity check, not a price.
• Prediction market ETF wrapper—effective but paused. Roundhill's RPM BLUP and REDP became effective May 5, 2026 but the SEC paused review near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns; Bitwise and GraniteShares filings remain queued behind. The funds are not yet trading. Once the structural questions resolve, net creations on either side will be an ambient flow signal on the same outcomes priced in the pies above, and the basis between ETF NAV and the underlying Polymarket/Kalshi contracts becomes the cleanest cross-venue trade.