2026 Maine Senate Race

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On June 9, 2026 Maine Democrats first nominated Graham Platner to challenge five-term Republican Susan Collins—but the nomination changed hands. Kalshi's Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026? book settled to Troy Jackson, the former state Senate president, who is now the Democratic nominee for the seat.

With the nominee question resolved, this workspace now tracks the Jackson–Collins general election. Kalshi and Polymarket both price who holds the seat in November, and the dominant-outcome spotlights read the cross-exchange spread on whether Democrats flip it.

Collins, seeking a sixth term, is one of the most-watched incumbents on the 2026 map; the seat is a genuine flip target and a marquee line in the fight for Senate control.

Anchor: Kalshi SENATEME-26 — Maine Senate winner, resolving with the November 3, 2026 general election.

Who holds the seat in November: Troy Jackson (D) against Susan Collins (R). Kalshi and Polymarket both list the seat-winner book—the pair below reads the cross-exchange spread on whether Democrats flip Maine.

  • Nominee settled, general is the story. The Democratic nomination resolved to Troy Jackson; the live question is now Jackson vs. Collins for the seat in November.
  • Cross-exchange spread on the seat. Kalshi typically runs several times Polymarket's volume on the seat-winner question; sustained divergence between them is usually liquidity rather than genuine disagreement.
  • Collins's incumbency. A five-term Republican in a state Democrats carry at the presidential level—the seat is one of the clearest flip tests on the 2026 map.
  • Settlement timing. The seat resolves with the November 3, 2026 general election; the countdown tracks election day.