French Open 2026

Roland-Garros 2026—the second Slam, priced across exchanges

The 2026 French Open runs May 25 through June 7 at Stade Roland-Garros in Paris—the only Grand Slam still contested on clay. This workspace pulls the men's and women's winner pies on Polymarket and Kalshi side by side, so the cross-exchange spread on the favorite, the depth of each book, and the long-tail outsider pricing are visible in one frame.

Men's final: Sunday, June 7, 2026.
Women's final: Saturday, June 6, 2026.
Surface: Clay (Court Philippe-Chatrier, Court Suzanne-Lenglen, etc.).
Anchor settlement source: Roland-Garros official.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking through both finals.

Men's draw—Polymarket and Kalshi winner pies

Anchor event on each exchange: the 128-player men's draw as a Categorical, rendered as a full pie. Polymarket's book is roughly 10× the Kalshi book by 24-hour volume, but Kalshi's open interest is meaningfully larger—most of the Kalshi position is held, not actively repriced. The cross-exchange spread on the favorite is the cleanest single-frame read on which book is leading at any given moment.

Women's draw—the lower-volume sibling

The women's draw books are thinner on both exchanges (~$24k/day Polymarket, ~$12k/day Kalshi). Thin books mean wider bid/ask spreads and slower repricing as match results come in—useful for spotting venue-lag and for reading how the favorite consolidates. The Kalshi men's/women's pair settles two days after the actual finals (June 10), which is normal Kalshi conservative-settlement convention.

What to watch across the stack

• Polymarket vs. Kalshi on the men's favorite. Polymarket's book is roughly an order of magnitude deeper than Kalshi's on the men's side today, so the Polymarket pie should lead and the Kalshi pie should lag-correct. Persistent divergence is usually a Kalshi-staleness signal, not a real spread.
• Open interest vs. 24h volume. Kalshi's open interest is substantially larger than its 24h trading volume on both draws—most of the position is held, not actively traded. Polymarket runs the opposite: lower OI, higher daily turnover.
• Long-tail outsiders. With ~128 players entering each draw, the pie has a long tail of single-digit-bps outcomes. Watch any name that moves from ~0% to >2% between rounds; in tennis Slams that's almost always a leading indicator of a real adjustment, not a noise trade.
• Surface specialization. Clay specialists historically outperform their on-tour ranking at Roland-Garros. The cross-exchange pies reprice each round; the question is whether one venue reprices faster than the other.
• Women's draw is the lower-volume sibling here. Polymarket's women's market is ~$24k/day and Kalshi's is ~$12k/day. Thin books mean wider spreads and slower repricing—useful for spotting venue-lag opportunities.