FOMC Tracker

June 17, 2026 — the Fed rate decision across every exchange

This workspace is the cross-exchange view on the June FOMC rate decision plus the medium-term story about where rates are headed for the rest of 2026. The anchor is the 5-outcome Fed decision event, listed as a proper Categorical on both Kalshi and Polymarket and as a 25 bp-cut binary on Manifold. Below the anchor section, the workspace zooms out to the year-end rate path: how many cuts are priced in for 2026, where the Fed funds rate lands, and the distribution of cut probabilities at every remaining 2026 meeting.

Meeting date: June 17, 2026, 2:00 PM ET.
Last decision: April 29, 2026—the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% as Kalshi and Polymarket priced 99% odds of no change.
Anchor settlement source: Federal Reserve.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep it tracking after the Fed announces.

June 17 decision — cross-exchange view

Anchor event as pies on Kalshi and Polymarket, then the dominant "no change" outcome priced on each exchange, then a direct comparison of the 25 bp-cut binaries on Polymarket and Manifold.

Medium-term rate path — 2026 cuts, year-end rate, post-June funds

Where does the year land? Kalshi's Range chart of expected total cuts, Polymarket and Manifold's Categorical counts, Polymarket's year-end rate distribution, Kalshi's Cumulative view of the post-June funds rate, and Polymarket's per-meeting path-of-cuts event.

What to watch

• Cross-exchange spread on the anchor pies. When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same rung by more than a couple of points, one side is catching up to the other. The 'no change' row below the pies makes that spread visible on the dominant outcome specifically.
• 25 bp-cut binaries. Polymarket's direct 25 bp-decrease market and Manifold's 25 bp binary should track each other closely. When they drift, Manifold is usually the lagging price.
• CPI and jobs prints between now and June 17 move the anchor's 25 bp bin and the whole year-end rate curve in tandem. Watch the Kalshi anchor history chart around release mornings—that's where re-pricing shows up first.
• Fed speaker calendars. Any FOMC member on the record before the blackout period can shift the post-June funds rate on Kalshi's Cumulative KXFED-26JUN chart and the how-many-cuts-in-2026 distributions at the same time.
• The countdown at the top of this workspace is targeting the actual rate announcement moment on June 17. Most of the meaningful re-pricing happens in the final 48 hours and on release minutes.