FOMC Tracker

July 29, 2026 — the Fed rate decision across every exchange

This workspace is the cross-exchange view on the July FOMC rate decision plus the medium-term story about where rates are headed for the rest of 2026. The Fed held the funds rate steady at the June 17 meeting—Kevin Warsh's first as chair, decided unanimously—so the live question is whether the July 28–29 meeting delivers the year's first move. The anchor is the Fed decision in Jul 2026? distribution, priced as a pie on both Kalshi and Polymarket and settling July 29.

July 29 decision — cross-exchange view. Kalshi and Polymarket both price the full rate-decision distribution as a pie. Below, the two outcomes the book is weighing most—no change versus a 25 bp cut—are shown side by side on both exchanges, so the cross-exchange spread on each is visible at a glance.

Medium-term rate path — 2026 cuts, year-end rate, post-July funds

Where does the year land? Kalshi's Range chart of total expected cuts, Polymarket and Manifold's Categorical cut-counts, Polymarket's year-end rate distribution, and Kalshi's Cumulative funds-rate-after-July book together trace the path from this single meeting to the December rate. These markets settle on the full-year outcome, so they stay live across each monthly decision.

What to watch

• Cross-exchange spread on the anchor pies. When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same rung by more than a couple of points, one side is catching up to the other.
• No change vs. a 25 bp cut. The paired markets below the pies are the cleanest single numbers for "will they move in July"—the June meeting held, so a first cut is the live upside case.
• The path markets vs. the meeting. If the year-end and cut-count distributions shift while the July meeting odds sit still, the market is repricing the back half of the year, not this decision.
• Manifold's net-cut count. The play-money Categorical is a useful sanity check against the regulated venues on the full-year path.