FOMC Tracker

This is the cross-exchange view on the September FOMC rate decision plus the medium-term story of where rates head through year-end. The Fed held steady at both June 17 and July 29—Kevin Warsh's first two meetings as chair, each without a cut. Heading into September the book has swung hawkish, pricing a 25bp hike as slightly more likely than another hold—a notable turn for a chair many expected to ease. The anchor is the Fed decision in Sep 2026? distribution, shown as a pie on Kalshi and Manifold; Polymarket isn't running a monthly-decision market this cycle, so it carries the story through the cut-count and year-end books below.

Kalshi prices the full rate-decision distribution as a pie; Manifold mirrors it with coarser buckets (Polymarket doesn't list a September monthly-decision market this cycle). Below, the two outcomes the book is weighing most—another hold versus a 25bp hike—sit side by side, the cleanest read on whether Warsh's Fed finally moves in September.

Where does the year land? Kalshi's Range chart of total rate changes, Polymarket and Manifold's Categorical cut-counts, Polymarket's year-end rate distribution, and Kalshi's Cumulative funds-rate-after-September book trace the path from this meeting to December. With September leaning toward a hike, the cut-count books have compressed toward zero and the year-end distribution has drifted higher. These settle on the full-year outcome, so they stay live across each monthly decision.

• Cross-exchange spread on the anchor pies. When Kalshi and Manifold disagree on the same rung by more than a couple of points, one book is catching up to the other.
• Hold vs. a 25bp hike. The paired markets below the pies are the cleanest single numbers for "will they move in September"—both prior meetings held, so a hike would be the regime break.
• The path markets vs. the meeting. If the year-end and cut-count distributions move while the September odds sit still, the market is repricing the back half of the year, not this decision.
• Manifold's read. The play-money Categorical is a useful sanity check against the regulated venues on both the decision and the full-year path.