2026 Senate Control

This workspace tracks which party wins the 2026 US Senate race across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold, plus the Kalshi Range market on the exact number of Democratic seats and the most-traded state-level Senate races. Kalshi prices Republicans at about 55% to hold the chamber against 45% for Democrats. Democrats are defending fewer competitive seats than in 2024, but several Republican-held seats (NC, ME, OH) are in play, and both marquee state books—Texas and Michigan—are now past their primaries and trading as generals. The cross-exchange spread, plus the seat-count distribution, is the most direct read on which party is favored.

Election day: November 3, 2026. Anchor settlement source: US Senate. ETF wrapper (effective May 5, paused): Roundhill RPM Democratic Senate (BLUS) and Republican Senate (REDS) became effective May 5, 2026 but SEC review was paused near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns; the funds are not yet trading. Sister workspaces: Michigan Senate 2026, Texas Senate 2026, House Control, 2028 Presidential.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep tracking after the midterms.

Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold all list the same binary D-vs-R Senate-control event. Spread between the three is the cleanest measure of where the marginal trader is positioned, with Kalshi carrying the bulk of regulated-venue liquidity.

Direct quotes on the Democratic Party outcome paired across Kalshi and Polymarket give the cleanest read on the cross-exchange spread for the single most-watched outcome. Click-to-trade lives on these tiles, not on the pies.

Both Michigan and Texas are now past their primaries, so the two state widgets below are general-election Categoricals. Texas (SENATETX-26) prices Ken Paxton against James Talarico at roughly 52/48—the closest statewide Senate book on the board. Michigan (SENATEMI-26, about $154k in 24-hour volume) prices Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers at roughly 59/41 after El-Sayed took the August 4 Democratic nomination by under three points. Both feed directly back into the control story above.

• Cross-exchange spread. When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 2–3 points on which party wins, the cheaper venue's outcome is the better book to fade into. Manifold is play-money but useful as a third independent read.
• Seat-count distribution (Kalshi Range). Watch where the mass sits between 47–51 Dem seats. A wide distribution implies real uncertainty; tightening into a single bucket implies the consensus is hardening.
• The two state books that matter. Texas at 52/48 and Michigan at 59/41 are the deepest individual Senate races on Kalshi. A Republican Texas hold plus a Democratic Michigan hold is roughly the market's base case, which is what keeps the chamber book near 55/45 rather than a coin flip.
• Michigan's primary margin was the tell. El-Sayed won the August 4 nomination with a 98% implied probability but by under three points. Whether that reads across to the general is the live question in the Michigan book.
• Prediction market ETF wrapper—effective but paused. Roundhill's RPM Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS) and Republican Senate ETF (REDS) became effective May 5, 2026 but the SEC paused review near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns. Bitwise and GraniteShares filed similar funds in February and remain in the queue behind Roundhill. The funds are not yet trading; once the SEC's structural questions resolve, net creations will be the ambient flow signal on the same Yes/No outcomes shown above.
• Settlement timing. Polymarket settles Nov 3 (election day); Kalshi settles Feb 1, 2027 (post-seating); Manifold settles Dec 31, 2026. Late-year price drift between venues is usually settlement mechanics, not disagreement.