2026 Senate Control

November 3, 2026—control of the US Senate across every exchange

This workspace tracks which party wins the 2026 US Senate race across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold, plus the Kalshi Range market on the exact number of Democratic seats and the most-traded state-level Senate primaries. Republicans currently hold the Senate; Democrats are defending fewer competitive seats than in 2024, but several Republican-held seats (NC, ME, OH) are in play. The cross-exchange spread—plus the seat-count distribution—is the most direct read on which party is favored.

Election day: November 3, 2026.
Anchor settlement source: US Senate.
ETF wrapper (effective May 5, paused): Roundhill RPM Democratic Senate (BLUS) and Republican Senate (REDS) became effective May 5, 2026 but SEC review was paused near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns; the funds are not yet trading.
Sister workspaces: House Control, California Governor 2026, 2028 Presidential.

Copy this workspace to your own account to keep tracking after the midterms.

Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold all list the same binary D-vs-R Senate-control event. Spread between the three is the cleanest measure of where the marginal trader is positioned, with Kalshi carrying the bulk of regulated-venue liquidity.

Direct quotes on the Democratic Party outcome paired across Kalshi and Polymarket give the cleanest read on the cross-exchange spread for the single most-watched outcome. Click-to-trade lives on these tiles, not on the pies.

Texas (R-held, retirement-driven open seat) and Michigan (D-held, primary contested) are the two most-traded individual Senate races on Kalshi. Both feed back into the Senate-control story above.

• Cross-exchange spread. When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 2–3 points on which party wins, the cheaper venue's outcome is the better book to fade into. Manifold is play-money but useful as a third independent read.
• Seat-count distribution (Kalshi Range). Watch where the mass sits between 47–51 Dem seats. A wide distribution implies real uncertainty; tightening into a single bucket implies the consensus is hardening.
• State-level liquidity. Texas Republican and Michigan Democratic primaries are the only state races with meaningful Kalshi 24h volume right now. As more state-level Categoricals open with liquidity, this workspace will extend.
• Prediction market ETF wrapper—effective but paused. Roundhill's RPM Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS) and Republican Senate ETF (REDS) became effective May 5, 2026 but the SEC paused review near the end of the 75-day window over "binary contract" structure concerns. Bitwise and GraniteShares filed similar funds in February and remain in the queue behind Roundhill. The funds are not yet trading; once the SEC's structural questions resolve, net creations will be the ambient flow signal on the same Yes/No outcomes shown above.
• Settlement timing. Polymarket settles Nov 3 (election day); Kalshi settles Feb 1, 2027 (post-seating); Manifold settles Dec 31, 2026. Late-year price drift between the three reflects different definitions of 'control.'